A quiet restart — and the funeral's biggest day.

Today marks the largest day of Ali Khamenei’s state funeral: the main procession moves through Tehran along a ten-kilometre route with millions expected, before the rites continue in Qom, then Najaf and Karbala in Iraq, and conclude with burial in Mashhad on July 9; his son and successor, Mojtaba, has yet to appear publicly. The US–Iran negotiations remain paused for the mourning and are due to resume soon afterward, following a Doha round both sides called encouraging. The truce, though, is unfinished: Israel continued to strike Lebanon over the weekend — the very issue Iran has tied to the talks — and the dispute over whether Iran can charge ships to transit Hormuz is unresolved, with NATO leaders due to discuss strait security this week.

For markets it is a quiet restart. US equity and bond markets reopen after the Independence Day break with futures little changed, and oil is holding near its multi-month lows in the low-$70s, still drifting easier on optimism about the negotiations; Hormuz shipping traffic has held steady. The week is light on scheduled data but heavy on signals — Wednesday’s Fed minutes, the funeral processions, and the timing of resumed diplomacy — against the softer-rates backdrop that last week’s weak jobs report created.

• Value led a recovery week — the S&P +1.8% and Nasdaq +2.1%, with Apple and other quality names to the fore.
• Chips gave back late — the AI complex bounced early, then faded on valuation worries.
• Bonds and gold rallied — a weak jobs print lowered yields and lifted bullion above $4,130.

Tap Week or YTD on each card. Week = 29 Jun–3 Jul (US markets closed Fri); YTD figures approximate, through 3 Jul.

The funeral dominates the regional calendar — a cross-border sequence from Tehran through Qom and into Najaf and Karbala before burial in Mashhad on July 9, drawing enormous crowds and representatives from more than 100 countries. Diplomacy is on hold until it ends, leaving the Hormuz tolling question open and traffic merely steady rather than fully normalising; NATO leaders are expected to weigh strait security this week. The complicating thread is Lebanon: Israel’s continued strikes there are the issue Iran has tied to the talks, so a flare-up could delay the diplomacy. For Gulf markets the near-term backdrop is calm — oil in the low-$70s, shipping moving — but a charged week keeps a modest risk premium in place.

Vault Wealth’s house view: the base case remains gradual normalisation once talks resume; stay selective on GCC financials and domestic-demand names and keep a modest hedge against strait- and Lebanon-related headline risk through the funeral week.