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July 2026(5)
- Stocks defied a widening war.Vault Wealth Cappuccino weekly wrap for Sunday, 12 July 2026. The sharpest escalation of the conflict so far — US strikes on Iran, Iranian strikes on US bases in Gulf states, and Strait of Hormuz traffic down roughly 60% — met a market that rose anyway. The S&P 500 gained 1.23% on the week and the Nasdaq 1.74%, led by a late rebound in AI and chips. Oil rose on the supply risk but held near $76, capped by signs that diplomacy is still alive.
- Markets hold their nerve as the war widens.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Saturday, 11 July 2026. US stocks finished the week higher — the S&P 500 rose 0.42% on Friday, with Nvidia up about 4% and Meta 6% — even as Iran struck US military bases in Gulf states and the ceasefire creaked. The disruption is now visible in the strait: Hormuz tanker traffic slowed roughly 60% this week. Oil stayed capped near $76, held in check by signals that diplomacy is still alive.
- The war widens — and the market looks through it.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Friday, 10 July 2026. The US struck around 90 targets across Iran early Thursday, and Iran retaliated by targeting Gulf countries — a sharp widening of the conflict. Yet US stocks rose: the S&P 500 gained 0.81% and the Nasdaq 1.30%, led by semiconductors on huge demand for SK Hynix's US share offering, which prices today. Oil stayed elevated near $79, and the resilience rests on a bet that the fighting stays contained.
- The ceasefire is called ‘over’ — and oil surges again.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Thursday, 9 July 2026. President Trump declared the US–Iran ceasefire “over,” said Washington was planning further strikes and floated reimposing a naval blockade on Iranian shipping through Hormuz; the US resumed strikes. Oil jumped again — Brent up 5.2% to $78.02, WTI 4.4% to $73.52 — reviving inflation worries. The Fed minutes, released into the surge, kept a rate hike firmly on the table.
- The truce breaks — and the war premium snaps back.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Wednesday, 8 July 2026. Iran attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the US launched a “series of powerful strikes” in response, and the Treasury revoked the license that had let Iran sell its oil. Crude jumped more than 5% — Brent above $76, WTI above $72 — reversing the supply-driven slide. Stocks had already slipped as money rotated out of AI names; the Fed minutes now land at 2pm into a risk-off, higher-oil tape.
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July 2026(7)
- Chips re-lead as the second half begins.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Tuesday, 7 July 2026. The AI trade came back to open the second half: AMD jumped 6.6% and Broadcom 3.7%, lifting the Nasdaq 1.12% and the S&P 500 0.72% to fresh records on Monday. Oil kept falling — an OPEC+ output hike landed on top of Iran's returning barrels, leaving Brent near $72. Funeral-week rhetoric out of Israel kept the truce fragile, and Wednesday's Fed minutes are the week's pivot.
- A quiet restart — and the funeral's biggest day.Vault Wealth Cortado for Monday, 6 July 2026. US markets reopen after the Independence Day break in a subdued summer mood, with equity futures little changed and oil holding near multi-month lows in the low-$70s. The week's pulse is elsewhere: Iran holds the largest day of Ali Khamenei's state funeral in Tehran today, the US–Iran talks stay paused until after the July 9 burial, and Israel continues to strike Lebanon. Wednesday's Fed minutes are the key data point.
- A recovery week that rotated under the surface.Vault Wealth Cappuccino weekly wrap for Sunday, 5 July 2026. Stocks regained most of the prior week's AI-derating drop — the S&P 500 rose 1.8% and the Nasdaq 2.1% — but leadership shifted, with value and quality names leading to fresh highs while chipmakers turned volatile and faded late. A weak June jobs report pushed the market's expected Fed hike from October to December, and the US–Iran talks paused for a week of funeral rites.
- A holiday at home; a week of mourning abroad.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Saturday, 4 July 2026. With US markets closed for Independence Day, the week's pivot is geopolitical: Iran today begins a seven-day state funeral for Ali Khamenei — the supreme leader killed in the war's opening strike in February, whose son Mojtaba has led since March — and the US–Iran talks are paused until it ends on July 9. The Doha round made positive progress, but the fight over whether Iran can charge ships to cross Hormuz is unresolved; oil fell for a third straight day.
- A weak jobs report resets the Fed clock.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Friday, 3 July 2026. The US economy added just 57,000 jobs in June — about half the ~110,000 expected, and the weakest in four months, with April and May revised down by a combined 74,000. Unemployment slipped to 4.2%, but only because people left the workforce. Markets read it as Fed-friendly: traders pushed the expected rate hike from October to December, lifting value and cyclicals even as tech lagged. US markets are closed today for Independence Day.
- Jobs day arrives with the warm-ups running soft.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Thursday, 2 July 2026. June payrolls land at 8:30am ET, forecast near 110,000 — down from May's 172,000 — with unemployment seen holding at 4.3%. The set-up leans cool: private payrolls (ADP) rose just 98,000 and ISM manufacturing eased. Stocks slipped on Wednesday as chipmakers took profits after an 80% first-half run, though Meta jumped 9% on a cloud pivot. Markets are closed Friday for Independence Day.
- The AI comeback accelerates, capping a blockbuster quarter.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Wednesday, 1 July 2026. Chipmakers ripped on Tuesday — AMD up 7.7%, SanDisk 10.9%, Intel 6% — lifting the Nasdaq 1.52% and fully reversing last week's derating. It closed the best quarter for US stocks since 2020: the S&P 500 rose about 14% and the Nasdaq around 20% in Q2. The US–Iran talks in Doha, meanwhile, snagged on whether Iran can charge ships to use the Strait of Hormuz; ADP and ISM data land today, ahead of Thursday's jobs report.
June 2026(30)
- Tech roars back as the truce holds — into quarter-end.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Tuesday, 30 June 2026. The Nasdaq jumped 2.07% and the S&P 500 1.18% on Monday, snapping a five-day losing streak as oversold AI names rebounded and the US–Iran stand-down eased nerves. Both sides halted the weekend's tit-for-tat attacks, and technical talks on the interim deal resume in Doha today; oil firmed but stayed well off the war highs, with Brent at $73.15. Today closes the books on the second quarter, with the jobs report on Thursday.
- Strikes, then a stand-down — into a jobs week.Vault Wealth Cortado for Monday, 29 June 2026. The US struck Iranian military targets over the weekend after Iran hit shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, before both sides signalled a stand-down with talks set to continue and vessels to move freely. Oil bounced on the flare-up, yet US futures still rose — the S&P up 0.4% — a tentative bid after the worst week for tech in months. The June jobs report lands Thursday, a day early, in a holiday-shortened week.
- The week the market questioned the AI trade.Vault Wealth Cappuccino weekly wrap for Sunday, 28 June 2026. The Nasdaq fell 4.6% over five straight sessions as investors backed away from stretched AI valuations and a wobbling IPO pipeline — yet the broad market held up, with the S&P 500 down only about 2%. Underneath, the macro quietly improved: May inflation peaked in line, the 10-year yield fell to its lowest since mid-May, and oil erased its entire war premium with Brent under $73.
- A rough week for tech — with a friendlier macro underneath.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Saturday, 27 June 2026. Friday capped a bruising week for the AI trade: the Nasdaq fell for a fifth straight session, down 4.6% on the week, after a report that OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027 unsettled an already-jittery tech market. Yet the broad market held up far better — the S&P 500 fell only about 2% — and the backdrop improved: May inflation peaked in line, the 10-year yield eased, and oil's war premium has gone, with Brent under $73.
- Inflation peaks without a sting — but Big Tech can't catch a bid.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Friday, 26 June 2026. May PCE rose to 4.1% year-on-year, the highest since 2023, but the monthly pace came in below forecast and the 10-year yield fell to its lowest since mid-May — a hot print, yet no worse than feared. Oil erased its wartime gains, with Brent under $73 as tankers cleared Hormuz. Even so, the Nasdaq fell for a fourth straight day as Apple dropped 6% on price increases, overshadowing a 17% surge in Micron.
- Inflation day — as oil collapses and Micron breaks the gloom.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Thursday, 25 June 2026. May PCE lands at 8:30am ET, forecast at +4.1% year-on-year and widely expected to mark this year's inflation peak. Yet the forces behind it are already turning: oil cratered on Wednesday, with Brent down 4.33% to $73.74 as the war premium drains. And after the bell Micron blew past estimates and jumped about 15%, challenging the chip-rout narrative that has gripped the week. Stocks steadied into the print — the S&P 500 slipped just 0.10%.
- Chips lead a broad selloff as the AI trade reprices.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Wednesday, 24 June 2026. A semiconductor rout deepened Monday's tech wobble into a genuine derating: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 8% as a memory-chip slump in Asia spread to Wall Street, dragging the Nasdaq down 2.21% and the S&P 500 1.44%, with defensives cushioning the lows. In Washington, the US–Iran talks kept progressing — Oman opened a temporary Strait of Hormuz corridor — but stayed fragile. Thursday's PCE now lands into a jumpier tape.
- A tech wobble, a small-cap record — and Iran talks advance.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Tuesday, 23 June 2026. Monday split the market: a mega-cap AI selloff dragged the Nasdaq down 1.32% — Alphabet fell 6.5%, its worst day in a year, after two senior AI researchers left for rivals — while the Russell 2000 closed above 3,000 for the first time as money rotated into small-caps. The US–Iran talks in Switzerland produced a roadmap and a Hormuz coordination mechanism, and move to Washington this week; oil eased. Thursday's PCE is the next test.
- The truce frays — and a PCE test lands Thursday.Vault Wealth Cortado for Monday, 22 June 2026. Days after the interim memorandum, the truce is wobbling: Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again over alleged Israeli ceasefire violations in Lebanon and tied the Switzerland talks to them, while the US insists traffic is still flowing. Brent bounced to about $80.6 on Friday as the Geneva talks were postponed; US futures slipped Sunday ahead of Thursday's PCE inflation report, the week's pivot.
- The week the Fed turned hawkish — and the war wound down.Vault Wealth Cappuccino weekly wrap for Sunday, 21 June 2026. Two regime shifts pulled opposite ways: the Fed's first dot plot under Kevin Warsh now implies a 2026 hike, not a cut, while an interim US–Iran memorandum reopened the Strait of Hormuz and sent Brent to multi-month lows near $77. Yet stocks still finished higher — the S&P 500 +0.9% (an 11th winning week in 12) and the Nasdaq +2.4% — before the Juneteenth holiday closed US markets Friday.
- Signatures, not a settlement — and Hormuz still has 600 ships to clear.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Saturday, 20 June 2026. The US and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding — an interim, non-binding step toward ending the war, not a final deal; the substantive nuclear talks have yet to begin. Hormuz is set to reopen, but executives warn it will take weeks to clear the ~600 vessels stranded by the war; Brent sits at multi-month lows near $77. With US markets closed Friday for Juneteenth, Thursday's chip-led rebound — Nasdaq +1.9%, S&P 500 +1.1% — is the latest print ahead of next Thursday's PCE report.
- The Iran deal is signed — and Wall Street is shut for Juneteenth.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Friday, 19 June 2026. The US and Iran sign their accord in Switzerland today, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and freeing Iranian oil sales; Brent slid about 3% to multi-month lows near $77. US equity and bond markets are closed for Juneteenth, so Thursday's rebound — Nasdaq +1.9%, S&P 500 +1.1%, led by chips — stands as the latest print.
- The Warsh Fed holds — but the dots now point up, not down.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Thursday, 18 June 2026. The Fed held rates 12-0 in Kevin Warsh's first meeting, but the new dot plot turned hawkish: the median 2026 projection now implies a hike, not a cut. Equities fell (S&P 500 −1.21%, Nasdaq −1.34%), front-end yields jumped and the dollar firmed. The US–Iran deal is set to sign Friday, reopening the Strait of Hormuz for mine clearance.
- The Dow clears 52,000 as tech cools; the Warsh Fed decides today.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Wednesday, 17 June 2026. Tuesday was a rotation day before the Fed: the Dow set a fresh record above 52,000 (+0.64%) while the Nasdaq slipped 1.15% to 26,376.34 and the S&P eased to 7,548.60 as megacap tech cooled. Brent fell to $78.82, the lowest since early March, as the first vessels began moving through Hormuz. The FOMC decision and Kevin Warsh's first dot plot land today at 14:00 ET; the BoJ raised rates to 1% overnight.
- A peace-deal rally: Dow record close; FOMC dot plot tomorrow.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Tuesday, 16 June 2026. Monday delivered the strongest US-equity rally of 2026: the Dow set a record close at 51,672.66 (+469 pts), the S&P +1.65% to 7,554.29, the Nasdaq +3.07% led by chips (Nvidia +6.4%). WTI collapsed −7.18% to $77.50, the lowest since mid-April, on Sunday's Iran-US peace deal. The FOMC two-day meeting begins today; the decision and new dot plot land tomorrow at 14:00 ET.
- The Iran war ends: futures jump, oil collapses, FOMC ahead.Vault Wealth Cortado for Monday, 15 June 2026. Trump announced Sunday the US and Iran reached an agreement to end the war — formal signing ceremony Friday 19 June in Switzerland. US futures gapped higher (Dow +440 pts, S&P +1.14%, Nasdaq +1.79%); Asia rallied (Kospi +5.1%, Nikkei +3.6%); WTI −4.77% to $80.83, Brent −4% to $83.77. The G7 opens Monday at Évian; the FOMC meets Tue-Wed; the formal Iran signing closes the week Friday.
- A choppy CPI week ended on Iran-deal optimism; G7 + FOMC ahead.Vault Wealth Cappuccino weekly wrap for Sunday, 14 June 2026. The S&P added 0.7% in a week dominated by Wednesday's risk-off (Dow −953 pts) and the Thursday-Friday recovery on Trump's strike suspension and an Iran-deal G7 signal. Brent fell 10.9% to $86.30. SpaceX listed at $161.11 (+19.3%) — the largest IPO ever. The ECB hiked for the first time since 2023. This week: G7 summit and the FOMC.
- A strong Friday close on Iran-deal optimism; G7 summit ahead.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Saturday, 13 June 2026. US equities rallied to close the week (Dow +354 pts, S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.3%) on rising expectations an Iran-US peace deal could sign at the G7 summit in Évian, France (15-17 June). Brent fell 3% to $86.30, a six-week low. SpaceX debuted at $161.11 (+19.3%), the largest IPO in market history. The FOMC follows 16-17 June.
- A modest recovery on Iran de-escalation; pre-FOMC blackout begins.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Friday, 12 June 2026. Thursday saw US equities recover modestly (Dow +0.5%, S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.4%) after Trump suspended planned strikes against Iran and signalled a deal could sign in Europe this weekend; Brent fell 4% to ~$89. The ECB delivered its first hike since 2023 to 2.25%; US PPI ran hot. Adobe beat and raised after the close; the pre-FOMC blackout begins today.
- An in-line CPI, a sharp risk-off; ECB about to hike.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Thursday, 11 June 2026. Wednesday's CPI landed broadly in line (4.2% headline / 2.9% core YoY; core MoM softer) but equities sold off hard — Dow −953 pts (−1.87%), S&P −1.62%, Nasdaq −1.98% — as Trump said Iran talks were 'taking too long.' Oracle beat but its FY26 cash burn sent shares −7% AH. Today: ECB decision at 08:15 ET (first hike of cycle to 2.25%), US PPI, Adobe Q2.
- Into a CPI release: another session of declines; US strikes Iran overnight.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Wednesday, 10 June 2026. Tuesday saw another session of declines (S&P −0.26%, Nasdaq −0.97%, tech down nearly 2%) as Trump confirmed Iran downed a US helicopter and the US struck Iranian radar sites near Hormuz. Today's 08:30 ET May CPI release (cons 4.2% headline / 2.8% core YoY) is the macro inflection; Oracle reports after the close.
- A shallow rebound off Friday's reset; Wednesday's CPI is the real test.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Tuesday, 9 June 2026. Chip names led a modest Monday recovery — Micron +9.8%, Nvidia +2% — but the broader bid was shallow. Iran fired ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain while Trump pushed for a ceasefire and kept the US blockade in place. Wednesday's May CPI (cons 4.2% headline / 2.8% core YoY) is the macro inflection for the September-cut conversation.
- Into a CPI week: a rate shock, an Iran escalation, an inflection point.Vault Wealth Cortado for Monday, 8 June 2026. Sunday-night futures softer after Friday's 172k payrolls shock cut the September-cut probability to ~55% and triggered a $1T semiconductor selloff. Trump returned the Iran MOU draft Saturday with tougher demands; Tehran threatens to halt talks and block Hormuz. Wednesday's May CPI is the macro test; the FOMC follows 16-17 June.
- A policy-data shock resets the September cut conversation.Vault Wealth Cappuccino weekly wrap for Sunday, 7 June 2026. May payrolls landed at 172k versus 80k consensus — the biggest upside surprise in over a year — sending the Nasdaq −4.18% (worst session since April 2025), the 10-year through 4.5% to 4.54%, and roughly $1 trillion out of the chip complex. The 9-week S&P winning streak snapped; the Iran MOU was returned to Tehran with tougher demands.
- A hot jobs print resets the cut narrative; the FOMC is now the watch.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Saturday, 6 June 2026. Friday's May payrolls surprise (172,000 jobs vs 80,000 consensus) pushed Treasury yields above key levels and triggered a sharp semiconductor selloff, with the Nasdaq down 4.18%. The September rate-cut probability collapsed from 70% to ~55%; the 17-18 June FOMC is the next major Fed signal.
- Markets steady ahead of May payrolls; Iran tensions ease overnight.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Friday, 5 June 2026. Thursday saw a partial recovery as the Iran-US strike pulse paused, with the S&P adding 0.41% and oil easing below $97. Today's May payrolls release at 08:30 ET is the single most-watched macro event of the month for the September rate-cut conversation.
- Records pause as Iran tensions return; AI guidance disappoints after-hours.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Thursday, 4 June 2026. The S&P 500's nine-day winning streak snapped after Iran struck Kuwait and Bahrain and the US hit Qeshm Island; oil rose and yields climbed on hot ISM Services prices. Broadcom posted record AI revenue but guided light; CrowdStrike fell 10%. Friday's payrolls is the binary.
- Records widen as Marvell joins the AI top tier; CrowdStrike reports tonight.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Wednesday, 3 June 2026. Tuesday brought three more record closes as Marvell jumped 33% on Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's Computex remarks and April job openings beat by more than 750,000. The September rate-cut conversation now hinges on Friday's payrolls; CrowdStrike's earnings are the next AI confirmation.
- Records continue as the AI story is confirmed again; Gulf risk returns.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Tuesday, 2 June 2026. Monday closed with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow all at fresh all-time highs as NVIDIA's RTX Spark Superchip and HPE's after-hours blowout reinforced the AI investment story. Brent rose 5% on a weekend US-Iran strike exchange; the MOU is back in Trump's review.
- Into a five-session week: HPE tonight, NFP Friday, MOU still pending.Vault Wealth Cortado for Monday, 1 June 2026. The Iran MOU sits at 95% but slipped a third weekend as Trump asked his negotiators not to rush. Sunday-night futures are higher after May's strongest equity month of 2026; HPE earnings tonight and the May NFP print Friday anchor a full five-session week.
May 2026(30)
- May 2026: the cleanest soft-landing month in two years.Vault Wealth Cappuccino weekly + monthly wrap for Sunday, 31 May 2026. Nasdaq +8%, S&P +5%, Dow +3% (above 51,000 for the first time), Brent −19% (worst month since the pandemic). Core PCE softened to 3.3% YoY; the supercore at 3.05% is a cycle low. The Iran MOU sat at 95% completed but Trump ended Friday's Situation Room meeting without his final determination.
- May closes +8% on the Nasdaq, −19% on Brent: the soft-landing fingerprint.Vault Wealth Double Espresso weekend wrap for Saturday, 30 May 2026. Friday saw the Dow above 51,000 for the first time and the S&P notch its 9th consecutive weekly gain. May was the strongest equity month of 2026 (Nasdaq +8%, S&P +5%, Dow +3%) and the worst commodity month since 2020 (Brent −19%). Iran MOU 95% complete but unsigned; the weekend catalyst is the signature.
- The supercore at 3.05%. The Iran framework provisionally signed.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Friday, 29 May 2026. Thursday's core PCE landed at 3.3% YoY (vs 3.8% cons) — biggest downside surprise in over a year; supercore 3.05%, a cycle low. S&P and Nasdaq closed at fresh records. US-Iran 60-day truce wording reached; Trump signature pending. Snowflake +36% AH on a $6B AWS deal.
- The Dow at a fresh record. Dell delivers $43 billion.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Thursday, 28 May 2026. Wednesday's Dow record close (50,644.28); Dell after-hours +4.5% on a record $43B AI-server backlog and ~$50B FY27 AI guide. Brent fell more than 4.5% intraday on Iran's pre-war Hormuz commitment. Friday's April core PCE is the macro anchor of the week.
- The S&P at a fresh record. Micron through $1 trillion.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Wednesday, 27 May 2026. Tuesday's first post-Memorial Day cash session printed ATHs on the S&P (7,519.12) and Nasdaq (26,656); Micron surged 19% to top $1T and become the fifth chip name in the trillion-dollar club. Dell, HP, Salesforce and Marvell report after the close tonight. Eid Mubarak.
- S&P futures at 7,534. Iran framework 95% agreed. Cash opens today.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Tuesday, 26 May 2026. Memorial Day futures hit fresh records on the framework headlines; Brent fell $13 then rebounded $6 overnight on US self-defence strikes. Conf Board confidence at 10:00 ET; Dell + AI complex earnings Wednesday; PCE Friday.
- An Iran MOU is largely negotiated. Markets re-open Tuesday.Vault Wealth Cortado for Monday, 25 May 2026. Trump says the framework is days away — 60-day Hormuz re-opening, Iran clears the mines, US lifts the blockade. US markets closed today for Memorial Day; full reopen Tuesday. PCE Friday is the data anchor of the week.
- The week the war narrative inverted.Vault Wealth Cappuccino weekly wrap for Sunday, 24 May 2026. A 19-year high in yields, two consecutive Dow record closes, an oil retreat of 8% from the Tuesday peak, and a Saturday-evening Trump remark that an Iran MOU is "largely negotiated." Memorial Day Monday closed; full reopen Tuesday.
- Two records in a row. Qatar in Tehran. Memorial Day ahead.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Saturday, 23 May 2026. The week closed with the Dow at a second straight record (50,579.70), the S&P at a five-week high, and oil bouncing into the long weekend on a Qatari mediation mission to Tehran. Deere beat Q2 by 15% — inflated by a $272m tariff refund. Treasuries closed early Friday; markets reopen Tuesday.
- Dow at a record. Oil down 8% on the week. Same five sessions.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Friday, 22 May 2026. The Dow closed Thursday at 50,285.66 — its first record close since February. WTI fell 1.92% to $96.35; Brent 2.10% to $102.58. US-Iran deal hopes pulled oil lower; the Russell 2000 led equities for the first time in five sessions. NVDA gave back 1.8% post-earnings; Walmart -2% on a soft FY27 guide. Treasuries close early ahead of Memorial Day weekend.
- NVIDIA reaffirmed the AI cycle. The 30-year auction tests yields today.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Thursday, 21 May 2026. NVDA Q1 FY27 revenue $44.06B (+69% YoY), Data Center $39.1B, Q2 guide $78B against a $76B street — even with a $4.5B H20 charge. Target and Lowe's both beat-and-raised. The 30-year Treasury auction at 13:00 ET is the day's binary; long-end has eased off Tuesday's 5.19% peak.
- 30-year Treasury yield at 5.19%. The first time since 2007.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Wednesday, 20 May 2026. The 30-year Treasury punched through 5.10% intraday to a 19-year peak of 5.19% — the first such reading since August 2007. Equities posted a third straight losing session; small caps the worst hit. FOMC minutes today at 14:00 ET (last under Powell); 10-year Treasury auction at 13:00 ET; Lowe's, Target, TJX earnings.
- Trump paused the Iran strike. Brent retreated $3. Hormuz still closed.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Tuesday, 19 May 2026. After Monday's cash close, Trump called off the planned Tuesday Iran strike at the request of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. Brent retraced from $112 to $109.09 (−2.7%); the 10-year yield punched to a fresh one-year high of 4.61% into a heavy Treasury auction week. Warsh was formally sworn in as the 17th Fed Chair.
- The week opens with Hormuz closed and a Situation Room Tuesday.Vault Wealth Cortado for Monday, 18 May 2026. A new Fed Chair, a closed Strait, and a Tuesday White House meeting on military options — three threads define the week ahead.
- The records came undone. Chips led the drawdown. Hormuz is closed.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Saturday, 16 May 2026. Friday reversed Thursday's records run in a single session — S&P −1.24% to 7,408.50, Nasdaq −1.54% to 26,225.14, Dow −1.07% to 49,526.17. Chips led the selling (NVDA −4.4%, AMD −5.7%, MU −6.6%, Cerebras −10%). Brent +3.10% to $109.26 as Trump escalated on Iran and Hormuz upgraded to CLOSED.
- Three records in a row. Dow back through 50,000. Powell's last day.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Friday, 15 May 2026. S&P at 7,501.24 (+0.77%) and Nasdaq at 26,635.22 (+0.88%) — both fresh ATHs for the second straight session. Dow recaptured 50,000 (50,063.46, +0.75%) for the first time since the Iran war began. Applied Materials beat-and-raised; Powell's term as Chair ends today.
- PPI ripped 6.0%. Equities printed records anyway. Warsh takes the desk tomorrow.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Thursday, 14 May 2026. April PPI +6.0% YoY — biggest since Dec 2022 — yet the S&P closed at 7,444.25 and the Nasdaq at 26,402.34, both fresh ATHs on tech leadership. The 10-year pulled back to 4.47% on flight-to-quality; the 30-year held above 5.00%. Warsh confirmed Fed Chair 54–45; Powell exits today.
- CPI ran 0.6%. The 10-year hit a one-year high. The Fed-chair handover starts today.Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Wednesday, 13 May 2026. April CPI printed +0.6% MoM and +3.8% YoY — highest since May 2023. Energy did over 40% of the work; gasoline alone ran +18.5%. The 10-year ripped 10 bps to 4.58%, a 1-year high. Warsh confirmed to the Fed board 51–45 last night; the Senate Chair vote is on the calendar today.
- "On life support" — and the S&P still printed a recordVault Wealth Double Espresso for Tuesday, 12 May 2026. Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "on life support" Monday afternoon. Brent settled +3% at $104.30. The S&P, Nasdaq and Russell all closed at fresh ATHs anyway. Today: Warsh's full-Senate vote, the 30-year holding above 5.05%, and a CPI print 24 hours out.
- Iran answered, Trump rejected — the bracket is back onVault Wealth Cortado for Monday, 11 May 2026. Tehran's written response reached Washington via Pakistan Saturday — uranium transfer offered, facility dismantlement refused. Trump called it 'totally unacceptable'. Brent +3.5% in Sun-night futures, US futures −0.3%, KOSPI opened at a fresh ATH. Vol. 9 starts at the wrong end of the regime gauge.
- A week of records on top of a week that almost wasn'tVault Wealth Cappuccino for Sunday, 10 May 2026 — the Vol. 8 wrap. Three S&P records in five sessions, the Nasdaq's biggest week since November (+4.86%), Brent's −5.91% round-trip from a Monday Hormuz spike, an Iran written response now overdue on the 1-page MoU, a hot April NFP print, and Powell's measured Hoover valedictory.
- Records on a hot NFP — and the geopolitics that couldn't matter lessVault Wealth Double Espresso Saturday recap for 09 May 2026. April payrolls printed +115K vs 65K consensus, the S&P closed at 7,398.93 and the Nasdaq at 26,247.08 — fresh all-time highs for the third time in five sessions. VIX collapsed to 13.78. AMD finished the week +25%; SOX +7.4%. Brent ended −6% on the week despite a +1% Friday lift on a tanker incident. The US disabled two Iranian tankers; the UAE intercepted a second salvo. The April-8 ceasefire formally held.
- Iran's silence — and a market that has already moved onVault Wealth Double Espresso for Friday, 08 May 2026. The 48-hour Iran response window passed without a reply. Brent gave up another 4% to $103.40 as deal-fade priced in, the S&P slipped 0.38% from Wednesday's all-time high, NVDA printed a fresh ATH on the AMD read-through, and Powell takes the podium at 14:00 ET for what is widely expected to be his final public remarks before the 15 May handover.
- Records on records — AMD +18.6% drags the Nasdaq through 25,800Vault Wealth Double Espresso for Thursday, 07 May 2026. A 1-page MoU framework, $715B of 2026 hyperscaler capex, and a chip designer that just guided +46% YoY into Q2. The S&P printed back-to-back records at 7,365.12, the Nasdaq punched through 25,800 on its biggest day in six weeks, and AMD ripped 18.61% — its largest single-session move since 2022. Trump's bombing threat sits in the background; markets have decided to discount it.
- Trump pauses Project Freedom — and markets call the truceVault Wealth Double Espresso for Wednesday, 06 May 2026. A 24-hour round-trip: Brent gave back nearly all of Monday’s spike, the S&P printed a fresh ATH at 7,259.22, the VIX collapsed −10.8% to 15.92, and AMD’s Q1 blowout (data-centre +57% YoY, Q2 guide $11.2bn) reignited the AI capex thesis after the close.
- Iran strikes the UAE overnight; the US fights to reopen HormuzVault Wealth Double Espresso for Tuesday, 05 May 2026. UAE air defences engaged a 19-projectile salvo; the US Navy sank six Iranian boats in the Strait under 'Project Freedom'. Brent +5.8% to $114.44, S&P −0.41% to 7,200.75 — a clean risk-off open to May. Hormuz throughput collapsed back into single digits.
- Vol. 8 opens — NFP Friday, OPEC+ mid-May, NVIDIA on the 20thVault Wealth Cortado for Monday, 04 May 2026. Vol. 8 opens with one developing diplomatic input and a forward-loaded earnings calendar. Iran sent an updated peace proposal to Pakistani mediators late Friday; Trump replied 'not satisfied'. Sunday-night futures point modestly lower; Brent above $109. The week ahead is light Mon–Wed, then Friday's April NFP. Three scenarios mapped inside.
- The week, distilled — the first AperitifVault Wealth Aperitif for Sunday, 03 May 2026 — a reflective weekly review that closes Vol. 7. Five winning weeks running, the S&P's strongest month since 2020, and an unusually shock-rich middle: an 8–4 FOMC dissent (most contested since 1992), a Mag-4 capex split that resolved on quality, Apple's Q2 record + $100bn buyback, and a Brent round-trip from $107 through a $126 wartime high to $108 as Iran's peace proposal hit the wires.
- The week closed where it ran — Apple +3%, Brent eased, fifth winning weekVault Wealth Saturday recap for 02 May 2026. Friday added a fifth consecutive winning week. S&P +0.29% to a fresh ATH 7,230.12; Nasdaq +0.89% to 25,114.44 (also fresh ATH); Dow eased −0.31%. Apple jumped +3% on Q2 FY26 revenue $111.2bn (+17% y/y), iPhone $56.99bn (+22%), services a record $30.98bn, plus a $100bn buyback authorisation. Brent fell to $108.17 (−1.7%) on a fresh Iran peace proposal.
- April closes at a record — Apple beat, Brent round-trip, NFP todayVault Wealth Double Espresso for Friday, 01 May 2026. April closed at a record — S&P +1.02% to a fresh ATH 7,209.01, the strongest month since 2020. Apple delivered a clean Q2 FY26 beat (rev $111.18bn, EPS $2.01, services $30.98bn); AAPL AH +1.9%. Brent had a wild round-trip Thursday — peaked $126 intraday on Trump's blockade language, closed $114.01 (-3.4%). Q1 GDP soft (+2.0%), March core PCE warm (+0.3% m/m). Today: April NFP, ISM Manufacturing, UAE first day outside OPEC.
April 2026(25)
- Capex split, $118 Brent — Apple closes the wall tonightVault Wealth Double Espresso for Thursday, 30 April 2026. Wednesday delivered the Mag-4 capex split: Alphabet +6% AH and Amazon +4% AH cleared the bar; Meta -7% AH and Microsoft drifted on capex investors read as overspend. Combined Mag-4 2026 commitment ~$615-680bn. FOMC held 8-4 (first 4-vote dissent since Oct 1992); Powell announced he stays on the Board. Today: Q1 GDP and March core PCE pre-market; Apple after-close. Chart of the day: Mag-7 capex dispersion - prior vs new guide ranges with after-hours moves.
- Three shocks before the FOMC — Mag-7 night decidesVault Wealth Double Espresso for Wednesday, 29 April 2026. Three shocks broke the record streak Tuesday: a WSJ report on OpenAI missing its revenue and user targets cracked the AI bid (NVDA -3.3%, AMD -5.5%, ARM -7.4%); the UAE announced it will exit OPEC effective May 1; and Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz peace proposal, sending Brent above $111. S&P -0.49%, Nasdaq -0.90%, VIX +11%. Tonight: Powell's last FOMC and four Mag-7 prints. Chart of the day: Tuesday's three shocks rendered as an intraday timeline.
- Quiet records into the heaviest week of the yearVault Wealth client briefing for Tuesday, 28 April 2026. Quiet records into the heaviest week of the year — S&P +0.12% to 7,173.91 and Nasdaq +0.20% to 24,887.10, both fresh records, even as Brent peaked at $108 on the cancelled Pakistan trip and Iran reportedly submitted a new Hormuz proposal. FOMC begins today; Powell's last press conference Wednesday. Mag-7 wall (MSFT/GOOG/META/AMZN Wed, AAPL Thu); tonight: AMD, Visa, Spotify, Booking, Snap. Chart of the day: Brent's eight-week journey from $70 to $107.
- The weekend moved the goalposts — Iran talks off, Brent through $107Vault Wealth Monday weekend wrap for Monday, 27 April 2026. Trump cancelled the Witkoff-Kushner Pakistan trip Saturday after Iran 'offered a lot, but not enough'. IRGC boarded two more container ships; Brent +2% to above $107 in Sunday-night futures, US equity futures -0.3%. Last week the S&P closed at a record (+0.55% to 7,165.08) on Intel's best day since 1987. The week ahead: Powell's last FOMC, five Mag-7 prints in two days, GDP, PCE, NFP and ISM Manufacturing. Three scenarios mapped inside.
- Tech took the wheel — Friday closed the week at a recordVault Wealth client briefing for Saturday, 25 April 2026. Friday closed at fresh records — S&P +0.80% to 7,165.08, Nasdaq +1.63% to 24,836.60 — on Intel's biggest single-day gain since October 1987 and an 18-session win streak in semis. Brent broke $105 even as Witkoff and Kushner flew to Pakistan for direct Iran talks. DOJ dropped its criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell, clearing Warsh's confirmation path. Mag-7 earnings wall lands Wed-Thu next week.
- Oil won the tiebreaker — stocks blinkedVault Wealth client briefing for Friday, 24 April 2026. Thursday broke the streak — S&P −0.41%, Nasdaq −0.89% as software led the decline and Iran said it would mine Hormuz. Energy +3%, Tech −1.4% — textbook supply-shock fingerprint. US flash PMI printed cyclical reacceleration (mfg 54.0, best since May 2022) and Texas Instruments had its largest single-day gain in 25 years. Mag-7 earnings land next week.
- Iran answers the ceasefire — with two shipsVault Wealth Daily Briefing for Thursday, 23 April 2026. Wednesday closed at records — S&P 7,137.12, Nasdaq 24,657.57 — on Trump's ceasefire extension and a clean tech tape. Hours later, Tehran seized two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent is back above $100, US futures are red, and Tuesday's supply-side signal is reasserting itself. Tesla beat EPS and faded on a $25bn capex guide; Apple named John Ternus CEO-designate.
- Trump extends the ceasefire — unilaterallyVault Wealth Daily Briefing for Wednesday, 22 April 2026. Trump publicly renewed the US–Iran truce overnight without a matching statement from Tehran. Hormuz shipping remains largely halted; Brent holds the low-$90s. Stocks and bonds sold off together — the tape is pricing a supply-side shock, not a growth scare. Tesla's Q1 print lands after the US close.
- Hormuz crisis reignites — but the tape refuses to give up its gainsVault Wealth Daily Briefing for Tuesday, 21 April 2026. The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged ship near the Strait of Hormuz; Brent spiked to the high-$97 handle then settled at $95.01 (−0.49%). The S&P fell −0.24% to 7,109.14, VIX rose +7.95% to 18.87, and European bourses took the bulk of the hit (DAX −1.15%). The fourth Hormuz shock this month — and the third to close with US indices moving less than half a percent.
- The peace trade meets reality — Hormuz shuts, Asia gives the first verdictVault Wealth Aperitif Monday Pre-Open Brief for 20 April 2026. After Sunday's Hormuz reversal, Asia opened lower and crude gapped higher: Nikkei −2.35%, Hang Seng −2.06%, S&P futures −2.09%, Brent +7.87% to $97.50, WTI +9.46% to $90.40, gold $4,942 (+1.28%), VIX futures +32% to 23.15. The Gulf and EU cash sessions face the full repricing today — with a BoJ decision, UK CPI and Gulf trade data still to come.
- Oil crashes 9% as Iran reopens the Strait of HormuzVault Wealth daily briefing for Saturday, 18 April 2026. Brent crude plunges 9.07% to $90.38 as Tehran declares the Strait of Hormuz open for commercial shipping during the ceasefire; the S&P 500 surges 1.2% to a record 7,126.06; Wall Street banks begin trading derivatives on private credit stress; Fed's Waller warns of a 'lasting' price shock from the conflict.
- Lebanon ceasefire takes hold as oil retreats and diplomacy gains groundVault Wealth Daily Briefing for Friday, 17 April 2026. Israel and Hizbollah agree to a 10-day ceasefire; Brent slips below $100 for the first time in weeks at $98.08 (-1.32%); the S&P 500 extends its record run to 7,041.28; the VIX falls to 17.94. Asia diverges as the Nikkei and Hang Seng decline; Gulf states tap private debt markets for $10bn; Germany set to halve growth forecast on energy costs.
- S&P breaches 7,000 as Trump says war is 'very close to over'Vault Wealth Daily Market Briefing for Thursday, 16 April 2026. Milestones are stacking — the S&P crossed 7,000 for the first time ever, VIX hit a new conflict low for the fourth straight session, Pakistan's army chief landed in Tehran, and the UAE confirmed schools reopen Monday. The exit ramp is not a rumour — it is in the price.
- Wall Street posts record profits as Trump floats Iran talksVault Wealth Daily Briefing for Wednesday, 15 April 2026. Banks shatter first-quarter earnings records on a surge in war-driven trading revenue; the Nasdaq extends its winning streak to ten sessions as Trump signals negotiations with Tehran could resume within days in Islamabad. Brent stabilises near $95, the VIX falls to 18.36, and gold holds near record at $4,848.
- Blockade is live — oil dips, markets rallyVault Wealth Daily Market Briefing for Tuesday, 14 April 2026. Day one of the Strait of Hormuz blockade: WTI fell −1.62% to $97.47, the S&P closed +1.02% at 6,886.24, the KOSPI led Asia +3.34%, and the VIX dropped to a new conflict low of 19.12. Iran is losing approximately $150 million per day in crude revenue, but 190 million barrels of floating inventory and a mid-May Trump-Xi Geneva meeting are the timers markets are watching.
- Talks collapse, blockade begins — oil surges back above $100Vault Wealth Daily Briefing for Monday, 13 April 2026. The Islamabad negotiations lasted 21 hours before breaking down over oil and nuclear terms. Within hours, President Trump announced a US Naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI surged +8.57% to $104.85 and Brent +7.38% to $102.23 — the first close above $100 since the conflict began. Equities held with notable composure: S&P −0.11%, Nasdaq +0.35%, VIX falling to 19.23.
- Inflation bites as the energy shock deepensVault Wealth Daily Briefing for Saturday, 11 April 2026. US consumer prices post their steepest monthly surge in two years as energy costs ripple through the global economy; the US–Iran ceasefire enters day four with Iran-linked vessels dominating Hormuz traffic; Brent holds near $95 with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing past 4.3%.
- Talks begin in Islamabad — VIX breaks below 20 as Saudi oil hit keeps energy elevatedVault Wealth Daily Briefing for Friday, 10 April 2026. The most dramatic week in recent market history closes with formal US-Iran peace negotiations underway in Islamabad, the VIX at 19.49 (sub-20 for the first time since the war began), and Brent holding above $96 even with a ceasefire in place after Bloomberg reported damage to Saudi production capacity. The S&P closed +0.62% at 6,824.66 — its fifth consecutive positive session — and gained ~7.1% across the week.
- Ceasefire sparks global relief rally as Hormuz stays blockedA fragile US-Iran truce lifts equities and crushes volatility, but oil rises again as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and Israeli strikes on Lebanon threaten the deal. S&P +2.51% to 6,782.81, DAX +5.06%, VIX −18% to 21.04 — yet Brent climbs back above $97 as Tehran dictates Hormuz terms.
- Ceasefire sends oil crashing as Hormuz reopensVault Wealth Daily Market Briefing for Wednesday, 08 April 2026. Washington and Tehran agree a two-week truce on day 39 of the conflict; Brent plunges nearly 14% to $94.26, Asian equities surge with the Nikkei +5.29%, and gold holds above $4,800 as markets weigh the fragility of the deal.
- Deadline day for Hormuz — Trump sets a Tuesday ultimatumVault Wealth Daily Market Briefing for Tuesday, 7 April 2026. Trump's Tuesday deadline looms over Hormuz as WTI surges past $115 and Brent above $111; gold holds near $4,688; the VIX stays elevated at 24.17. Gulf states scramble for alternative routes as tanker traffic through the strait falls an estimated 90% since hostilities began.
- Hormuz cracks open as ceasefire talks accelerateVault Wealth Daily Market Briefing for Monday, 6 April 2026. Iran allowed Iraqi tankers through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend — a calculated partial concession that could release up to 3 mb/d of trapped crude. Mediators are pushing a 45-day ceasefire framework as the war enters its sixth week. Brent held above $110, gold sat near $4,680, Bitcoin surged 3% to $69,000 and the VIX stayed elevated at 23.87. With US markets shut for Good Friday, attention turns to how futures react as trading resumes.
- Energy crisis deepens as Trump vows intensified Iran strikesVault Wealth Daily Briefing for Friday, 03 April 2026. Oil surges past $109 on Hormuz fears; global energy rationing spreads; safe-haven gold hits $4,700; bond investors pivot to safety as growth risks mount.
- Trump says objectives nearing completion — Brent surges 5.75% as Hormuz risk returnsVault Wealth Daily Market Briefing for Thursday, 2 April 2026 — the Liberation Day anniversary. Oil reclaims $107 as Trump signals the war continues; Europe rallies hard while Asia reverses; one year of tariffs meets a five-week energy shock; SpaceX moves toward a historic IPO.
- Trump says Iran war could end in weeks; global markets surge in biggest rally of the yearVault Wealth Daily Market Briefing for Wednesday, 1 April 2026. VIX collapses 17.5% as peace signals send stocks to multi-week highs: S&P +2.91%, Nikkei +4.51%, KOSPI +8.13%. Brent eases from its Q1 record close as the energy risk premium softens, while gold prints a fresh all-time high above $4,700.
March 2026(10)
- Houthis join the war as Brent hits record monthly gain to close Q1Vault Wealth Daily Market Briefing for Tuesday, 31 March 2026. Iran war enters its fifth week with a new front opening via Yemen; Brent closes Q1 above $107 on track for its largest monthly gain on record; the US 10-year yield fell 9.8 bps to 4.342% as safe-haven demand surged; European equities outperformed (FTSE +1.61%, DAX +1.18%) while US tech slid and Asian markets weakened.
- Oil surges as U.S.–Iran tensions escalateVault Wealth daily briefing for Monday, 30 March 2026. Crude prices spike above $107 amid Kharg Island rhetoric; global equities sell off sharply as the VIX breaches 31. Brent +2.35%, S&P −1.67%, Nasdaq −2.15%, Nikkei −3.30%.
- OECD slashes global growth as Iran war enters its fourth weekVault Wealth daily briefing for Friday, 27 March 2026. The OECD cut global GDP growth to 2.9% for 2026 and lifted G20 inflation by 1.2 percentage points to 4%, directly citing the US-Israel war with Iran. The VIX spiked 8.33% to 27.44, the Nasdaq fell 2.38%, gold and silver rallied as safe havens, and US Treasury yields rose sharply — a stagflationary combination. Asia diverged higher while Western equities slid.
- Oil tumbles on Iran peace signals — gold surges to new highsVault Wealth Daily Market Briefing for Wednesday, 25 March 2026. Brent crude fell 4.75% to $99.53 — the sharpest single-session decline since the Iran conflict began — after Trump signalled progress on Tehran negotiations and Iran's IMO delegation said 'non-hostile vessels' could transit Hormuz. Gold surged 3.79% to $4,568.80 and silver jumped 5.70%; equities slipped (S&P −0.37%, Nasdaq −0.84%) and the VIX rose to 26.95. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on LNG; the Philippines declared an energy emergency.
- Trump's pause, Iran's missiles — markets whipsawVault Wealth daily market briefing for Tuesday, 24 March 2026. Stocks rallied on ceasefire signals — S&P +1.15%, Dow +1.38%, Russell 2000 +2.29% — but Brent surged 3.82% back to $103.76 as Iran fired fresh missiles and denied any US talks. Slovenia became the first EU nation to ration fuel; the UK convened an emergency Cobra committee. Gold extended its margin-call slide (−1.48%) while the 10-year Treasury rallied 6 bps to 4.334%.
- The Strait of Hormuz crisis enters its most dangerous phaseVault Wealth Daily Market Briefing for Monday, 23 March 2026. Oil above $108, global equities in retreat, gold liquidated, bonds selling off — a stagflationary signal with no safe haven in sight as the Iran conflict's disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz intensifies.
- Markets plunge as Fed holds steady; oil surges past $108 on escalationVault Wealth Daily Market Briefing for Thursday, 19 March 2026. The FOMC delivered a hawkish hold at 3.50–3.75% while Iranian strikes on energy infrastructure across Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE drove Brent +4.91% to $107.97. The S&P fell 1.36%, the VIX spiked above 25, gold sold off alongside equities, and stagflation fears intensified.
- The Fed meets in the shadow of warVault Wealth daily briefing for Wednesday, 18 March 2026. Stagflation's ghost returns as Brent tops $100, central banks face impossible trade-offs, and markets hold their breath ahead of the FOMC. Equities printed a tactical relief rally as crude pulled back from $105 highs to $101, the VIX dropped 4.85%, and Treasuries rallied across the curve.
- Oil eases from $105 — but the Hormuz question keeps markets on edgeVault Wealth daily briefing for Tuesday, 17 March 2026. Brent settled at $102.91 after Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed safe passage for Iranian tankers through Hormuz; the S&P rose 1.01% to 6,699.38, the Nasdaq +1.22%, the VIX fell 13.5% to 23.51, and gold pushed above $5,000 for the first time. The Fed meets this week into a stagflationary bind.
- The largest oil supply disruption in history — and the Gulf is in the crosshairsVault Wealth Double Espresso for Saturday, 14 March 2026. The IEA declared the largest oil supply disruption on record as the US-Israel campaign against Iran intensifies; G7 agreed to a historic strategic-reserve release; Brent closed above $103 and WTI above $98 with the Strait of Hormuz still closed. Equities, gold and silver all sold off Friday — a stagflationary cross-asset print rather than a flight to safety.