Markets hold their nerve as the war widens.

The week’s defining feature was the gap between the geopolitics and the tape: a materially wider conflict — strikes on both sides, US bases in the Gulf hit, Hormuz traffic down more than half — and yet US equities, led by AI, closed higher. That resilience rests on two assumptions: that diplomacy is still breathing, and that the strait keeps flowing enough. Both held this week; neither is guaranteed.

• Mega-cap tech led again — Nvidia and Meta drove the S&P to a weekly gain.
• Oil rose on the week but held near $76, capped Friday by hopes diplomacy continues.
• Havens stayed firm — gold and the dollar kept their bid, a hedge the market never fully dropped.

Figures are Friday 10 Jul’s US close; US markets are closed today. Times are Gulf Standard Time; rates, FX and commodity levels are approximate.

For the region this was the most serious week of the episode. Iran’s strikes on US military infrastructure in Gulf states brought the conflict directly onto Gulf territory, and the shipping data confirms the strain: transits through Hormuz roughly halved, to 13 tankers on Wednesday from about 33 a day the week before. Oil rose on the week but was held near $76 by signals that diplomacy is still alive — a fragile equilibrium. Higher crude supports export revenue, but a genuine disruption to the strait, or a further widening of the strikes, would quickly outweigh that through freight, insurance and confidence effects across the Gulf economies.

Vault Wealth’s house view: the regional risk premium is elevated and two-sided; keep energy and gold hedges, stay selective on GCC exposure, and treat a sustained oil break above $80 or a further drop in strait traffic as the signal to turn more defensive.