Stocks defied a widening war.

The week’s defining feature was the distance between events on the ground and prices on the screen: a materially wider conflict, yet a solid weekly gain led by the mega-caps. That resilience is a considered bet — on diplomacy holding and the strait staying open enough — not a signal that the risk has passed. With a heavy macro calendar next week, the market’s attention is about to split between the conflict and the data.

1. 01

   US stocks defied the conflict, the S&P rising 1.23% and the Nasdaq 1.74% on the week, led by a late rebound in AI and chips.

2. 02

   The conflict escalated sharply: the US struck targets in Iran, Iran struck US military infrastructure in Gulf states, and the ceasefire was left creaking.

3. 03

   The strain became visible in the strait, where Hormuz tanker traffic roughly halved, to 13 transits from about 33 a day.

4. 04

   Oil rose on the supply risk to around $76, but stayed short of a crisis spike as signals of continuing diplomacy kept it in check.

5. 05

   The Fed minutes leaned hawkish, keeping a rate hike on the table even as the market leaned on resilient AI demand.

• Mega-cap tech led the gain — a late AI and chip rebound carried the benchmarks through the volatility.
• Oil rose but stayed contained near $76, capped by hopes that diplomacy continues.
• Rates firmed after hawkish minutes, keeping a hike on the table into next week’s CPI.

Tap Week or YTD on each card. Week = 6–10 Jul; YTD figures approximate, through 10 Jul. Single names appear as news, not recommendations.

The scoreboard captures the week’s real lesson: the geopolitical bear case largely played out on the ground — strikes, a wider conflict, a jump in oil — yet equities rose anyway. When the market decides to look through a risk, the news flow and the price action can point in opposite directions for longer than seems reasonable.

This was the most consequential week of the episode for the region: Iranian strikes on US military infrastructure in Gulf states brought the conflict directly onto Gulf territory, and the shipping data confirmed the strain, with Hormuz transits roughly halving to 13 tankers a day. Oil rose on the supply risk but held near $76, kept in check by signals that diplomacy continues — a fragile equilibrium rather than a resolution. Higher crude supports export revenue in the near term, but a genuine disruption to the strait, or a further widening of the strikes, would outweigh that through freight, insurance and confidence effects across the Gulf economies.

Vault Wealth’s house view: the regional risk premium is elevated and two-sided; we favour selectivity — a constructive but cautious stance on GCC financials and domestic-demand sectors, with energy and gold hedges retained — and would treat a sustained oil break above $80, or a further drop in strait traffic, as the signal to turn more defensive.