The war widens — and the market looks through it.

The session captured a market increasingly willing to look through the conflict — leaning on resilient AI demand and the assumption that, however sharp the strikes, the fighting stays contained. That is a defensible base case, but it is also a bet: a genuine disruption to Gulf shipping, or a sustained oil move above $80, would test it quickly, and Iran striking Gulf countries is a reminder the risk is no longer confined to the strait.

• Semiconductors led — Micron and the chip ETF rallied on huge SK Hynix IPO demand, carrying the indices higher.
• Oil stayed bid — crude held near $79 as the strikes and the Gulf retaliation kept the war premium in place.
• Havens held firm — gold and the dollar stayed supported even as equities rose, a sign of lingering caution.

Equity figures are Thursday 9 Jul’s close; rates and FX levels are the latest available and approximate.

This is the most direct regional escalation of the whole episode: after the US struck around 90 targets across Iran, Iran retaliated by targeting Gulf countries — moving the conflict beyond the Strait of Hormuz and onto Gulf soil. For the region that raises the stakes materially: physical security, insurance and freight costs, and the credibility of the reopening are all now in question, and the diplomacy that had been progressing looks stalled. Oil near $79 lifts export revenue, but a widening conflict is a net negative for regional stability, trade and investor confidence. Global markets, notably, are still pricing a contained outcome — a gap between the geopolitical reality and the market’s optimism that is worth watching closely.

Vault Wealth’s house view: the regional risk premium has stepped up; keep energy and gold hedges, stay selective on GCC exposure, and treat any sign of sustained disruption to Gulf shipping — or oil holding above $80 — as the trigger to turn more defensive.