The ceasefire is called ‘over’ — and oil surges again.

Two forces that had been pulling the same way — falling oil and a cooling labour market, both pointing to a patient Fed — have split apart. Oil is now rising on the strait while the minutes remind markets the hike bias is intact, so last week’s dovish read is fading. Today’s burial in Mashhad ends the funeral without the clean path back to talks that markets had assumed.

• Crude extended its surge as the “ceasefire over” comments and blockade threat kept the war premium climbing.
• The broad market softened — small-caps and cyclicals fell, though chips lifted the Nasdaq.
• Hawkish minutes plus higher oil firmed yields and the dollar, cutting against the rate-cut trade.

Equity figures are Wednesday 8 Jul’s close; rates and FX levels are the latest available and approximate.

The turn from “encouraging progress” to “ceasefire over” in the space of days is the sharpest reminder yet of how fragile the peace has been. A threatened naval blockade and resumed strikes reintroduce the worst case for the region — a genuinely contested Strait of Hormuz — and the timing, as Khamenei’s burial concludes today, leaves the path to renewed talks unclear. Higher crude lifts Gulf export revenue in the near term, but a blockade or sustained disruption would raise freight and insurance costs, snarl trade and inject uncertainty that outweighs the revenue gain. The diplomacy that had been progressing now hangs on whether the escalation is a negotiating posture or a durable breakdown.

Vault Wealth’s house view: treat this as a live tail risk again — keep energy and gold hedges, stay selective on GCC exposure, and watch a sustained move above $80 in oil as the signal that the market is pricing real disruption rather than rhetoric.