The truce breaks — and the war premium snaps back.

Just as a rising-supply story looked set to keep oil falling and let the Fed lean dovish, the strait reasserted itself. A sustained oil spike would blur the disinflation signal the market has been leaning on, which is why today’s minutes — and the durability of this flare-up — matter more than they did 24 hours ago.

• Crude jumped over 5% as the Hormuz attacks and the license revocation brought the war premium back.
• Equities fell — the AI complex kept rotating out and rising oil weighed on sentiment.
• Havens firmed — gold and the dollar caught a bid into the escalation and the Fed minutes.

Equity figures are Tuesday 7 Jul’s close; the strikes came in the evening. Rates and FX levels are the latest available and approximate ahead of the 2pm FOMC minutes.

For the Gulf the escalation is the dominant risk: attacks on three vessels in Hormuz and US strikes in response reintroduce exactly the disruption — higher freight and insurance costs, uncertain transit — that the reopening had begun to unwind, and the revoked oil license removes the path for Iran’s barrels to reach the market. Higher crude lifts exporter revenue in the near term, but a contested strait is a net negative for regional trade, sentiment and the diplomacy, which had been progressing before the funeral pause. The timing, during a week of mourning and heightened rhetoric, makes the path from here especially uncertain.

Vault Wealth’s house view: the tail risk many had written down has re-activated; stay selective, keep energy and gold hedges in place, and treat a sustained move in oil — not the headlines alone — as the signal that matters for regional and global exposure.