The four numbers that reset the conversation.
A scorecard for the trading week of Mon 1 → Fri 5 June — five sessions that opened at fresh records and closed with the largest single-session selloff in semiconductors since April 2025, all on the back of a hot May payrolls release that re-rated the September-cut probability. The detailed walk-through follows below.
172k
May NFP (released Fri)
vs 80k cons · biggest surprise in over a year
−2.6%
S&P 500 · weekly
snapped 9-week gain streak
−4.7%
Nasdaq · weekly
Fri −4.18% worst session since Apr 2025
4.54%
US 10-Yr (Fri close)
+7 bps Fri · broke above 4.5%
A policy-data shock ended a nine-week S&P winning streak.
The week opened at fresh record highs. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both set new closing peaks Monday as June trading began with continued institutional engagement in AI infrastructure names, and Marvell Technology added 33% after-hours on Tuesday after a clean earnings beat extended the second-quarter AI-revenue story. By Wednesday the nine-week S&P winning streak that defined May began to wobble on early signs that the Iran MOU was sliding further from signature; Thursday delivered a partial intraday recovery before a Broadcom after-hours miss reset expectations into Friday’s payrolls release. Then May payrolls landed at 172k versus 80k consensus — the largest upside labour-market surprise in more than a year. Within minutes Fed funds futures cut the September-cut probability from roughly 70% to about 55%; the 10-year yield broke above 4.5% to close the week at 4.54% (+14 bps); the Nasdaq fell 4.18% in the single worst session since April 2025, and an estimated $1 trillion of market value left the semiconductor complex. The S&P closed −2.64% Friday and −2.6% for the week, breaking the longest winning streak since 2004.
The Iran-US MOU did not sign this week. The framework wording held at 95% completed through Tuesday, but Trump returned the draft to Tehran late Saturday with materially tougher demands: stricter uranium-stockpile dilution language, faster Hormuz hand-back, and a tighter sanctions sequencing schedule. Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir continues to mediate with Qatari and Saudi backing; Iran’s official response is pending. The Vault Hormuz indicator remains RESTRICTED at ≈7.0 mb/d against a pre-crisis baseline of roughly 20 mb/d, and Brent crude held the $95-$97 corridor through the week, closing Friday at $96.83. The investor focus over the next ten sessions narrows to two anchors: Wednesday 10 June’s May CPI release, which will either confirm or push back against Friday’s labour-market read, and the FOMC meeting on 17-18 June, which will frame how the Committee weighs a softer-than-expected supercore against an unexpectedly resilient jobs print.
The week that was, condensed.
- 01
Monday opened June at fresh record closes — the S&P 7,612.84 (+0.43%) and Nasdaq 26,983.71 (+0.51%) — as ISM Manufacturing surprised to the upside and HPE's strong AI-server backlog read kept the infrastructure narrative intact into the new quarter.
- 02
Tuesday closed steady at the index level (S&P +0.18%) but Marvell Technology surged 33% after-hours on a Q1 beat, +47% YoY data-centre revenue and FY27 AI guidance of $5 billion, sending the broader semi complex up roughly 2% in the after-market.
- 03
Wednesday delivered the first signal that the Iran MOU was slipping — Tehran returned an annotated draft pushing back on Hormuz hand-back timing and uranium dilution — and the nine-week S&P winning streak hit a wall as the index closed −0.34% with Brent +2.1% on the geopolitical re-rating.
- 04
Thursday recovered some Wednesday losses (S&P +0.42%) on a soft jobless-claims reading and dovish remarks from NY Fed President Williams, but Broadcom missed Q2 consensus after the close on data-centre margin compression and AVGO fell 6% in after-hours, capping the relief rally heading into payrolls.
- 05
Friday's May payrolls landed at 172k versus 80k consensus (the biggest upside surprise in more than a year), the September-cut probability dropped from 70% to roughly 55%, the 10-year broke above 4.5% to 4.54%, the Nasdaq fell 4.18% (worst session since April 2025) and roughly $1 trillion of market value came out of the semiconductor complex in a single session.
The week's scoreboard, with YTD on a switch.
Each card below opens with a Spotlight row driving the week’s narrative for that asset class. Toggle the Week ⇄ YTD control above any spotlight to flip the entire card from week-to-date moves to year-to-date returns. Click “Show all” inside each card to expand the full row breakdown.
−2.60%
S&P 500 (week)
7,383.74 close · 9-week win streak snapped
−4.69%
Nasdaq (week)
25,709.43 close · Fri worst day since Apr 2025
+5.20%
Brent (week)
$96.83 close · Wed strike spike held in
+14 bps
US 10-Yr (week)
4.54% close · broke above 4.5% on NFP
Fri −4.18% worst single day since April 2025 · semiconductor reset
still positive YTD despite week's drawdown · AI complex still leads
Show all indices Hide indices
Wed strike spike held into Friday · Iran framework still unsigned
war-driven April-May peaks have largely retraced · range $90-$100
Show all commodities Hide commodities
hot NFP broke 4.5% · September cut probability now ~55%
essentially flat YTD after this week's repricing
Show all rates Hide rates
Note: yield-up = red, yield-down = green (bond-price convention).
risk-off pulse on hot NFP · gave back early-week gains
still range-bound after 2025's blow-off top
Show all FX & crypto Hide FX & crypto
Bull / Base / Bear — next week's probability map.
Chart of the Day · Week-Ahead Scenarios
Three roads through a CPI week.
A full five-session window for the week of 8 → 12 June, anchored by Wednesday's May CPI release. Base (55%) is the central case: a mixed inflation print (in line on headline, services modestly firm) lets markets stabilise into the 17-18 June FOMC meeting without resolving the rate-cut conversation. Bull (25%) requires a soft CPI to validate the disinflation read, a constructive Iran MOU outcome, and dip-buying in semiconductors. Bear (20%) is a hot CPI that confirms Friday's payrolls read, with the September cut probability falling below 40% and the semi reset extending.
Soft CPI rescues the disinflation read; Iran MOU signs; chip dip-buying
Mixed CPI; markets stabilise into FOMC; ranges hold
Hot CPI confirms the labour-market read; chip selloff extends
Probabilities sum to 100% · Vault Investment Office house view, refreshed Sundays
Sources: Vault Wealth Investment Office house view. Probabilities are subjective, refreshed each Sunday based on the prior week's close and the upcoming policy / data calendar. Last week's BULL/BASE/BEAR projections are graded in §07 below.
Three threads that moved the week.
Macro
May payrolls 172k vs 80k consensus — the biggest upside surprise in over a year
Friday's May employment report landed materially hotter than consensus across every meaningful dimension. Non-farm payrolls printed at 172k versus 80k expected, the unemployment rate held at 4.2%, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% MoM with the annual rate at 3.9% YoY, and the March-April revisions added 18k jobs to the prior two months. Fed funds futures repriced the September-cut probability from 70% Thursday to roughly 55% within ninety minutes of the release; the 10-year yield rose 7 bps Friday to break above 4.5% (closing at 4.54%, +14 bps for the week); the 30-year crossed 5%. With Wednesday 10 June's May CPI release as the next macro test, the rate-cut conversation has shifted from 'when in 2026' to 'whether September is still the right meeting.'
BLS · FRED · Reuters · CNBC · Fri 5 Jun
AI Capex
Roughly $1 trillion left the chip complex in a single Friday session
The Nasdaq's 4.18% Friday decline — its worst session since April 2025 — was led almost entirely by the semiconductor complex, with the SOX index falling roughly 8% intraday. Nvidia fell −5.8%, Broadcom −7.2% (compounded by Thursday-night earnings miss on data-centre margins), AMD −6.4%, Marvell gave back most of Tuesday's after-hours +33%, and ASML, TSMC ADR and Applied Materials all closed −5% or worse. The capex thesis itself remains intact — Hewlett-Packard Enterprise confirmed AI-server demand earlier in the week and Marvell guided FY27 AI revenue to $5 billion — but the valuations across the semi complex were re-rating to a higher discount rate as the long end of the curve pushed back to levels last seen in March.
CNBC · Bloomberg · WSJ · Yahoo Finance · Fri 5 Jun
Geopolitics
Trump returned the Iran MOU draft Saturday with tougher demands
The Iran-US framework wording that closed last week at '95% completed' did not advance this week. Tehran returned an annotated draft on Wednesday pushing back on Hormuz hand-back timing and uranium-dilution sequencing; Trump responded Saturday evening by returning the draft to Iran with a materially harder set of demands — immediate Hormuz hand-back rather than the staged 30-day version, stricter uranium-dilution language, faster sanctions-relief sequencing tied to International Atomic Energy Agency verification, and the exclusion of Russia and China from any reprocessing role. Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir continues to mediate with Qatari and Saudi backing; Iran's official response is pending. The Vault Hormuz indicator remains RESTRICTED at ≈7.0 mb/d.
Axios · Reuters · The Hill · Soufan Center · Sat 6 Jun
How last Sunday's Cappuccino call aged.
MOU signs; soft data extends; chip leadership continues
Call: Sun 31 May: MOU signs early; soft May NFP (below 130k) keeps September cut at 85%+; targets S&P 7,700+, Nasdaq +2%+ on the week, Brent $88–$92, Hormuz OPEN, US 10-Yr 4.30–4.40%, VIX <14.
Actual: MOU did NOT sign — Trump returned the draft Saturday with tougher demands. NFP came in at 172k (twice the consensus, the opposite of the soft-print thesis). S&P closed −2.6% on the week at 7,383.74; Nasdaq −4.7%; Brent $96.83 (above the $92 ceiling); Hormuz still RESTRICTED at ≈7.0 mb/d; US 10-Yr 4.54% (well above the 4.40% ceiling); VIX 18.92. Decisive miss — every leg of the Bull thesis broke.
Mixed week; MOU stays at 95%; ranges hold
Call: Sun 31 May: No signature this week; framework holds at 95%; in-line May NFP (140–180k); September cut stays 70–80%; S&P 7,450–7,650; Brent $90–$96; Hormuz RESTRICTED; US 10-Yr 4.35–4.50%.
Actual: The no-signature half is correct — framework slipped Wednesday, Trump returned the draft Saturday. NFP was 172k — at the top of the in-line range but a sharp upside vs. private estimates. Hormuz held RESTRICTED. But the data shock broke the ranges: S&P closed at 7,383 (below the 7,450 floor), Brent $96.83 (top of range), US 10-Yr 4.54% (above 4.50%), September cut at ~55% (below the 70% floor). Partial — directional read was right, magnitude was wrong.
MOU breakdown or hot data; risk-off; September cut wobbles
Call: Sun 31 May: Either MOU breakdown OR hot NFP (above 200k) triggers risk-off; S&P −3 to −5% on the week; Brent above $100; US 10-Yr above 4.55%; September cut drops below 60%; VIX above 18.
Actual: Both triggers fired in the same week — MOU was returned to Tehran, NFP printed 172k (just below the 200k threshold but a 2x consensus surprise). S&P closed −2.6% on the week (inside but near the band); 10-Yr 4.54% ✓ (above 4.55% threshold by a hair); September cut at ~55% ✓ (below 60%); VIX 18.92 ✓ (above 18). Brent $96.83 (below $100 — the de-escalation premium did not fully repair). Hit on three of five tests; the rate and risk-off legs were correctly identified.
Brent stayed in range while Hormuz stayed restricted.
Brent crude held the $95-$97 corridor through the trading week and closed Friday at $96.83 — roughly +0.5% on the week despite Saturday’s return of the Iran MOU draft adding fresh geopolitical uncertainty after the weekend. The Hormuz throughput remained RESTRICTED at ≈7.0 mb/d through the week, with throughput volumes broadly unchanged from the prior week as Pakistan-led mediation continued in the background. Regional credit was steady: Saudi 5-year CDS unchanged on the week, UAE eurobond spreads tightened a marginal 1 bp, and Qatar 5-year CDS held near the levels that prevailed before Wednesday’s news that Tehran had returned an annotated draft. DFM closed the four-and-a-half-day week +0.4%, Tadawul +0.2%, and the Qatar Stock Exchange flat; Aramco −0.6% as the Friday session pulled global oil-linked names lower; Emirates NBD and FAB closed the week roughly flat.
ADX returns to trading on Sunday and the cash open will read against two competing signals — Friday’s US rate shock (pressuring growth-sensitive regional financials) and Saturday’s MOU-return development (re-introducing a geopolitical-risk premium). Investors should watch Aramco and ADNOC for the cleanest signal on whether the regional market is pricing the MOU return as a meaningful escalation or as a routine round of negotiation; both names traded broadly in line with Brent all week and the Sunday open will set the tone for the next ten sessions, which include the May CPI release Wednesday and the FOMC meeting the week after.
Brent (Fri close)
$96.83
+0.5% on the week · range-bound
DFM (week)
+0.4%
Steady close · financials roughly flat
Hormuz throughput
≈7.0 mb/d
RESTRICTED · MOU returned Sat · response pending
Three things to watch into the CPI week.
The week of 8-12 June is anchored by Wednesday’s May CPI release, which arrives as the first follow-on test of Friday’s hot payrolls reading. The FOMC meeting on 17-18 June is the policy anchor a week later. The Iran MOU situation is on hold until Tehran responds to the Saturday-returned draft; the Powell-era policy framing under Warsh remains intact and the September cut is no longer base case across all three scenarios.
Watch 01
The May CPI release is the September cut anchor
Wednesday 10 June's May CPI release lands into a market that has just absorbed a 172k payrolls print and is now pricing the September cut at roughly 55%. Headline consensus is 0.2% MoM and 2.9% YoY; core is 0.25% MoM and 3.1% YoY. A clear downside surprise — core below 3.0% YoY or supercore softening for a fourth consecutive month — restores the supercore-disinflation narrative and pulls the September probability back above 65%. A reading in line or above consensus likely sees the September probability drift below 50% and shifts the rate-cut conversation toward December at the earliest. Investors should focus on services ex-housing and the rent components for the cleanest read.
Watch 02
The Iran MOU situation is on Tehran's clock
Saturday's return of the draft to Iran with materially harder demands shifts the timeline back into Tehran's hands. The base case among regional diplomats is a multi-day Iranian review before a formal counter-position; the bear case is a public Iranian rejection that re-introduces escalation risk into the Hormuz throughput data and the Brent crude curve. The base case is no movement this week, with the Hormuz indicator remaining RESTRICTED at ≈7.0 mb/d. A constructive Tehran response moves the indicator toward OPEN and supports a Brent move into the $90-$93 range; a public rejection sees Brent test $100 and Hormuz re-rate toward CLOSED.
Watch 03
The chip selloff tests AI-capex conviction
Roughly $1 trillion of market value left the semiconductor complex in Friday's session, almost entirely on the duration-sensitive re-rating that followed the payrolls release rather than on any change to the underlying AI demand picture. The week ahead will test how much of that move was a one-day rates shock versus a more durable rotation. The technology calendar is light — Oracle reports Thursday after the close as the only large-cap AI-adjacent print — which means the chip names will trade primarily on the CPI reaction and on positioning. Investors with longer-horizon AI exposure should consider whether Friday's move opened a re-entry window or marked the beginning of a broader valuation reset.