The four numbers Tuesday is opening on.
Monday’s shallow rebound led by chip names, the long-end Treasury unwinding a few bps of Friday’s NFP spike, Brent easing on Trump’s ceasefire push, and Wednesday’s May CPI release as the macro inflection combine into the four readings that frame the cash open. The detailed account follows in the section below.
7,405.73
S&P 500 (Mon close)
+0.30% · shallow recovery
4.51%
US 10-Yr (Mon close)
−3 bps · partial unwind of Fri NFP spike
$95.21
Brent (Mon close)
−1.67% · Trump ceasefire push despite strikes
4.2% / 2.8%
May CPI · Wed 8:30 ET
headline / core YoY consensus · macro test
A shallow rebound after Friday's reset; CPI Wednesday is the inflection.
Monday opened the week with a modest recovery, led almost entirely by chip names. The S&P 500 added 0.30% to 7,405.73, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.86% to 25,929.66, and the Dow eased 0.16% to 50,786.01. Micron Technology — which fell 13% in Friday’s $1 trillion semiconductor reset — recovered 9.8% on the day; Nvidia gained 2%; Marvell added 4%; the broader SOX index advanced roughly 3% intraday. Treasury yields gave back a small portion of Friday’s NFP-driven spike: the 10-year eased 3 bps to 4.51%, the 30-year to 5.03%, the 2-year held at 4.11%. The VIX dropped to 16.5 from Friday’s 18.92 close as the immediate risk pulse eased. Brent crude slipped 1.7% to $95.21 on Trump’s public push for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Iran, even as the US blockade of Iranian ports remains in place and CENTCOM continued kinetic operations near the Strait of Hormuz.
Geopolitics intruded both over the weekend and again on Monday. Iran fired seven ballistic missiles toward Kuwait and Bahrain (six intercepted by allied air defence, one failed to reach its target); CENTCOM shot down four Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz and struck Iranian radar sites in retaliation; Iran’s military stated that its current round of retaliation against Israel for Lebanon strikes was “concluded” while warning that further provocations would draw “much more severe” responses. Trump posted publicly that Israel and Iran “are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE” and that “final negotiations on Peace are proceeding,” though the US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains active until a deal is signed. The tentative MOU — covering a 60-day ceasefire extension, Hormuz reopening and uranium-program talks — is pending Trump’s approval. The Vault Hormuz indicator stays RESTRICTED at approximately 7.0 million barrels a day.
Today’s US calendar is light: NFIB Small Business Optimism in the morning, the US Treasury 3-year note auction at 13:00 ET as a first-test of long-end demand at the new 4.5%+ yield level. The week pivots Wednesday morning with the May CPI release at 08:30 ET — consensus 4.2% YoY headline / 2.8% core, with the 0.4-percentage-point YoY acceleration from April driven primarily by energy base effects given the Iran-conflict crude-oil premium. A clean downside surprise on core (below 2.7%) would restore the disinflation narrative and pull the September-cut probability back above 65%; a print at or above consensus likely leaves the cut conversation drifting toward the December meeting at earliest. The Powell-era policy framing under Warsh remains intact heading into the 16-17 June FOMC meeting. Oracle reports Q4 fiscal-year results Wednesday after the close — the cleanest single-name test this week of whether AI-infrastructure capex demand survived Friday’s chip reset.
A chip-led recovery with the long end still digesting Friday's spike.
Monday’s cross-asset picture was uneven. Equities recovered modestly with the lift concentrated in the semiconductor complex; the Dow lagged with cyclicals and energy under pressure. Treasury yields pared a small portion of Friday’s payrolls-driven spike — the 10-year unwound 3 bps to 4.51% and the 30-year to 5.03% — but the curve remains materially steeper than its Thursday close ahead of Wednesday’s CPI release. Brent eased on Trump’s ceasefire push despite continued kinetic activity near Hormuz; gold lost a small portion of Friday’s haven bid.
7,405.73
S&P 500 (Mon close)
+0.30% · shallow recovery led by chips
4.2% / 2.8%
May CPI · Wed 8:30 ET
headline / core YoY consensus
$95.21
Brent (Mon close)
−1.67% · Trump ceasefire push
~55%
Sep cut probability
down from 70% pre-NFP · hike odds rising
Micron +9.8% reversing most of Friday's 13% slide; Nvidia +2%, Marvell +4%
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Trump pushed for an immediate ceasefire despite Israel-Iran strikes
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partial unwind of Friday's NFP spike · September-cut probability ~55%
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Note: yield-up = red, yield-down = green (bond-price convention).
led the semi rebound · Nvidia +2%, Marvell +4% on the chip-led bounce
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The Treasury curve re-priced sharply on Friday — and held the move.
Chart of the Day · Yield Curve
The curve re-priced sharply on Friday — and only partially unwound Monday.
Friday's hot May payrolls release (172k versus 80k consensus) moved the entire US Treasury curve materially higher, with the long end leading. From Thursday's close: the 2-year added 18 bps to 4.12%, the 5-year added 17 bps to 4.35%, the 10-year added 14 bps to break 4.5% (closing at 4.54%), and the 30-year added 12 bps to cross 5.0% (closing at 5.06%). The 2-30 spread widened roughly 6 bps on the session as the market priced a more resilient growth backdrop and re-rated September-cut odds from 70% to 55%. Monday's chip-rebound session unwound only a fraction of the move — the 2-year held at 4.11%, the 5-year eased to 4.33%, the 10-year settled at 4.51%, and the 30-year sat at 5.03%. The curve enters Wednesday's CPI release in a meaningfully steeper configuration than it held through most of May.
Sources: US Treasury Department closing yields (Thu 4 Jun, Fri 5 Jun, Mon 8 Jun 2026); Bloomberg, CNBC. CME FedWatch implied September-cut probabilities pre- and post-NFP. Values shown are constant-maturity Treasury yields rounded to two decimals.
Three headlines shaping today's session.
Macro
May CPI release Wednesday is the week's macro inflection
Wednesday's 08:30 ET release of May CPI lands against a consensus of 4.2% YoY headline and 2.8% YoY core, with the 0.4-percentage-point YoY acceleration from April driven primarily by energy base effects given the Iran-conflict crude-oil premium. CME FedWatch now prices the September-cut probability near 55% (down from 70% Thursday); investors are split on whether the next Fed move is still a cut or a possible hike, with hike odds rising toward 57% over the full year. A clean downside surprise on core (below 2.7% YoY) restores the disinflation narrative and pulls the September probability back above 65%; a print above consensus likely shifts the cut conversation toward December at earliest. Services ex-housing and rent are the key components to watch.
BLS · CNBC · Cleveland Fed · Tue 9 Jun
Equities
Chip names led a modest Monday rebound; Micron +9.8% off Friday's reset
Monday brought a small recovery in the semiconductor complex after Friday's $1 trillion sector reset, though the broader rebound was shallow. The S&P 500 added 0.30% to 7,405.73 with the Nasdaq Composite up 0.86% to 25,929.66 and the Dow easing 0.16% to 50,786.01. Micron Technology — the memory name that fell 13% Friday — recovered 9.8%; Nvidia gained 2%; Marvell added 4%. The VIX eased to 16.5 from Friday's 18.92 close. Cyclical and energy names lagged the chip-led recovery. Heading into Wednesday's CPI release, the market needs a downside inflation surprise to extend the rebound through to a full retracement of Friday's move.
TheStreet · Schwab · CNBC · Mon 8 Jun
Geopolitics
Iran-US strikes continued through Monday; Trump pushes ceasefire
The weekend brought a measurable escalation. Iran fired seven ballistic missiles toward Kuwait and Bahrain (six intercepted, one failed to reach target); CENTCOM shot down four Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz and struck Iranian radar sites; Iran's military stated that its current round of retaliation against Israel for Lebanon strikes is 'concluded' while warning that further provocations will draw 'much more severe' responses. President Trump posted publicly that Israel and Iran 'are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE' and that 'final negotiations on Peace are proceeding'; the US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains active. The tentative MOU — 60-day ceasefire extension, Hormuz reopening, uranium-program talks — is pending Trump's approval. Hormuz indicator stays RESTRICTED at approximately 7.0 million barrels a day.
CBS News · ABC · Reuters · Mon 8 Jun
Regional credit widens again on weekend missile strikes near the GCC.
Iran’s weekend missile fire toward Kuwait and Bahrain (six of seven intercepted) re-introduced a measurable risk premium across regional credit. Kuwait’s 5-year CDS widened roughly 8 bps Sunday-Monday; Bahrain’s widened 6 bps; Qatar 5-year CDS gave back roughly 4 bps of the prior week’s tightening; Saudi 5-year CDS widened a marginal 2 bps. Tadawul opened the week down 0.4%; ADX −0.3%; the Qatar Stock Exchange −0.5%; Kuwait Boursa −0.7%. Aramco −0.6% and ADNOC −0.4% as Brent eased on Trump’s ceasefire push despite the kinetic activity. Regional banks held up better — Emirates NBD, FAB and Al Rajhi closed roughly flat — reflecting the view that the strike pattern was contained rather than the opening of a broader Gulf-wide phase. The Vault Hormuz indicator stays RESTRICTED at approximately 7.0 million barrels a day; commercial traffic continues at the post-Friday level with no further reduction reported.
For the week, the regional positioning question narrows to two binary risks: whether Iran follows through on its threat to halt MOU talks and “completely close” the Strait of Hormuz, and whether Trump’s public push for an immediate ceasefire converts into a signed memorandum. A signed MOU compresses Brent toward $90, tightens regional CDS back to last week’s levels, and supports the bank-led regional bid; a formal Iran withdrawal from talks pushes Brent through $100, widens GCC credit another leg, and re-rates the Hormuz indicator toward CLOSED. Wednesday’s US CPI release overlays both threads — a hot reading would force regional investors to weigh elevated oil prices against a US rate path that may no longer support the soft-landing case.
Kuwait 5-yr CDS
+8 bps
Weekend missile strike re-priced risk
ADX (Mon close)
−0.3%
Aramco −0.6%, banks flat
Hormuz indicator
~7.0 mb/d
RESTRICTED · MOU pending Trump approval
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Three things investors should watch through the CPI release.
Wednesday’s May CPI release is the macro inflection that defines whether the Friday rate shock extends into a broader risk-asset reset or starts to retrace. Beyond it: Iran’s formal response on the MOU and Oracle’s Wednesday-after-close print as the cleanest single-name AI-infrastructure test. The Powell-era policy framing under Warsh remains intact heading into the 16-17 June FOMC meeting.
Watch 01
Wednesday's May CPI is the data inflection of the week
The release lands at 08:30 ET Wednesday against a consensus of 4.2% YoY headline / 2.8% YoY core, with the 0.4-percentage-point YoY acceleration from April driven primarily by energy base effects. A clean downside surprise on core (below 2.7%) restores the supercore-disinflation narrative and pulls the September-cut probability back above 65%; a print at or above consensus likely sees the cut conversation drift toward the December meeting at earliest. A hot reading (core above 3.0%) puts the next-move conversation firmly back on the table for a possible hike — CME FedWatch already prices 57% odds of a hike at some point this year. Investors should focus on services ex-housing and rent components for the cleanest signal on whether the labour-market shock translates into sticky inflation.
Watch 02
The Iran MOU is on Trump's desk
The tentative MOU — 60-day ceasefire extension, Hormuz reopening, uranium-program talks — is now awaiting Trump's final approval after the weekend missile exchanges and his public push for an immediate ceasefire. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains active. A signed framework this week compresses Brent toward $90, restores the regional risk-premium compression of late May and supports both the bank-led GCC equity bid and a softer dollar. A formal Iranian withdrawal — or a follow-on missile strike on a GCC target — pushes Brent through $100, re-rates the Hormuz indicator toward CLOSED, and likely extends the chip-led equity reset of last week. The official Iranian foreign-ministry channel remains the cleanest forward-looking signal.
Watch 03
Oracle Wednesday is the AI-capex conviction test
Oracle reports Q4 fiscal-year results Wednesday after the close. Consensus calls for EPS of $1.96 (+15.4% YoY), revenue of $19.1 billion (+20.1% YoY), and capital expenditure of $12 billion (+32.5% YoY). The capex line is the key read for AI infrastructure conviction following Friday's $1 trillion chip reset: a meaningful upside surprise reaffirms that hyperscaler infrastructure spending is still accelerating rather than plateauing, and supports a re-entry window in quality semiconductor names. A capex print in line or below consensus extends the chip selloff and likely triggers a broader rotation away from longer-duration AI-infrastructure exposure. Investors with structural AI positioning should treat Oracle's report as the most useful single-name test this week of whether Friday's move was a one-day rates shock or the start of a valuation reset.