Hormuz · RESTRICTED
≈7.5 mb/d vs ~20 mb/d pre-crisis · G7 summit begins Mon · Trump to meet Mideast partners on sidelines · US-Iran deal could sign Sun in Évian
As of Sun 14 Jun 2026, 09:00 GST
The four numbers that defined the week.
A scorecard for the trading week of Mon 8 → Fri 12 June — five sessions that absorbed the May CPI release, the first ECB hike since 2023, the largest IPO in market history, and a material shift in Iran-conflict tone from kinetic exchange to deal-signing prospect. The detailed walk-through follows below.
+0.7%
S&P 500 · weekly
choppy week ended on Iran-deal optimism
−10.9%
Brent · weekly
from $96.83 to $86.30 · 6-week low
+19.3%
SpaceX IPO debut
market cap >$2T · largest IPO ever
16-17 Jun
FOMC · Tue-Wed
hawkish hold base case · new dot plot
A choppy CPI week ended on Iran-deal optimism; G7 + FOMC ahead.
The week opened against the backdrop of last Friday’s hot May payrolls shock and Trump’s return of the Iran MOU draft with tougher demands. Monday saw an Iran missile-strike weekend (seven ballistic missiles fired at Kuwait and Bahrain; six intercepted) and a US helicopter shot down; equities were weak. Tuesday brought the US strikes on Iranian radar sites near Hormuz between 17:00 and 21:00 ET; Trump threatened more action on Wednesday and the Dow lost 953 points (−1.87%) — its biggest single-day point decline of 2026 — despite the in-line May CPI release (4.2% YoY headline / 2.9% YoY core; the MoM core at 0.2% was softer than the 0.3% consensus). The European Central Bank delivered its first hike since 2023 on Thursday, lifting its deposit rate to 2.25%. May PPI ran hot the same day (+1.1% headline / +0.8% core MoM — the biggest one-month core PPI increase since March 2022).
The week reversed sharply Thursday afternoon. Trump suspended planned Thursday-night strikes against Iran, publicly signalled that a peace deal could sign at the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, France (15-17 June), and the Pakistan-led mediation team relocated to Europe. Brent crude fell more than 4% Thursday to $89.20 and another 3.25% Friday to $86.30 — a six-week low and −10.9% on the week. Equities rallied to close the week strong: the Dow added 354 points Friday to 51,202.66, the S&P closed at 7,431.46 (+0.5%), the Nasdaq at 25,346.10 (+0.3%). SpaceX completed the largest IPO in market history, opening at $135 and closing at $161.11 (+19.3%) — pushing its market cap above $2 trillion and into the global top-10 by capitalisation. Adobe beat-and-raised; the Department of Justice cleared the Paramount-Warner Bros Discovery merger. For the week: S&P +0.7%, Nasdaq +0.5%, Dow +0.7%; the 10-year Treasury yield eased 6 bps to 4.48%; gold fell to a three-month low below $4,200; the VIX dropped to 17.20.
The week ahead is anchored by two events landing in the same Tuesday-Wednesday window: the G7 summit at Évian-les-Bains (15-17 June) and the FOMC meeting (16-17 June). Trump is expected to attend Évian and to meet Mideast partners on the sidelines; the US-Iran agreement could sign as early as Sunday. The FOMC base case is a hawkish hold with revised projections that push the September cut into Q4; the dot plot will be the single most informative statement element. The Vault Hormuz indicator improves to RESTRICTED at ≈7.5 mb/d as commercial operators continue to price higher signature probability. The Powell-era policy framing under Warsh remains intact.
The week that was, condensed.
- 01
Monday opened weak after the weekend Iran missile strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain (six of seven intercepted) and the news that Iran had shot down a US helicopter; the chip names recovered modestly with Micron +9.8% reversing most of Friday's slide, but the broader bid was shallow (S&P +0.30%, Dow −0.16%).
- 02
Tuesday saw another decline (S&P −0.26%, Nasdaq −0.97%) as Trump teased retaliatory strikes against Iran; the US executed strikes on Iranian air-defence and radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz between 17:00 and 21:00 ET, and Brent fell −4.21% to $91.20 on early-session 'end of hostilities' speculation that the strike news partially reversed.
- 03
Wednesday delivered the week's risk-off centrepiece: Trump said Iran negotiations were 'taking too long' and threatened further action; the Dow lost 953 points (−1.87%) — its biggest single-day point decline of 2026 — despite the in-line May CPI release (4.2% YoY headline, 2.9% YoY core, with the MoM core at 0.2% versus 0.3% consensus); Oracle Q4 beat after the close but the stock fell 7%+ AH on the −$23.7bn FY26 free cash flow.
- 04
Thursday the European Central Bank delivered its first hike since 2023 (deposit rate +25 bps to 2.25%), US PPI surprised hot (+1.1% headline / +0.8% core MoM — the biggest core PPI increase since March 2022), and Trump suspended planned Thursday-night Iran strikes and signalled a deal could sign at the G7 summit; Adobe beat-and-raised after the close (+4.6% AH), and the S&P closed +0.30% on the tone shift.
- 05
Friday brought the strong week-ending rally on continued Iran-deal optimism: the Dow added 354 points (+0.70%) to 51,202.66, Brent fell another 3.25% to $86.30 (six-week low), gold below $4,200, and SpaceX completed the largest IPO in market history, closing at $161.11 (+19.3% debut) with a market cap above $2 trillion — placing the company among the ten most valuable listed globally.
The week's scoreboard, with YTD on a switch.
Each card below opens with a Spotlight row driving the week’s narrative for that asset class. Toggle the Week ⇄ YTD control above any spotlight to flip the entire card from week-to-date moves to year-to-date returns. Click “Show all” inside each card to expand the full row breakdown.
+0.65%
S&P 500 (week)
7,431.46 close · choppy week ended strong
+0.66%
Dow (week)
51,202.66 close · Fri +354 pts
−10.88%
Brent (week)
$86.30 close · 6-week low on G7 signal
−6 bps
US 10-Yr (week)
4.48% close · back below 4.5%
Fri +354 pts on Iran-deal G7 signal · choppy week ended strong
back above 51,000 after Wed dip below 50,000
Show all indices Hide indices
Trump suspended Thu strikes · signalled Iran deal could sign at G7 in Évian
from $108 Apr peak to $86 · conflict premium largely unwound
Show all commodities Hide commodities
back below 4.5% · September cut probability holds near 50% into FOMC
back to start-of-year level · last week's spike fully retraced
Show all rates Hide rates
Note: yield-down = green, yield-up = red (bond-price convention).
ECB delivered first hike since 2023 (deposit rate to 2.25%) · euro firmed
2026's strongest G10 currency vs dollar · ECB hike supports the bid
Show all FX & crypto Hide FX & crypto
Bull / Base / Bear — next week's probability map.
Chart of the Day · Week-Ahead Scenarios
Two anchors in one window: G7 summit and FOMC.
A rare alignment for the week of 15 → 19 June: the G7 summit at Évian (15-17 Jun) and the FOMC meeting (16-17 Jun) land in the same three-day window. The Iran-deal signature and the Fed's revised dot plot are now sequential cross-asset triggers in a single 72-hour window. Base (45%) is the central case: either the deal signs or the FOMC delivers a dovish hold, but not both. Bull (35%) requires both — a signed framework AND a dovish FOMC — that combination compresses Brent below $82 and supports equities into the FOMC weekend. Bear (20%) is no deal plus a hawkish FOMC that pushes the September cut into December.
Iran deal signs at G7; FOMC delivers dovish hold; chip dip-buying extends
Either deal or dovish Fed, not both; ranges hold; markets stabilise
No deal + hawkish FOMC + September cut moves to December
Probabilities sum to 100% · Vault Investment Office house view, refreshed Sundays
Sources: Vault Wealth Investment Office house view. Probabilities are subjective, refreshed each Sunday based on the prior week's close and the upcoming policy / data calendar. Last week's BULL/BASE/BEAR projections are graded in §07 below.
Three threads that moved the week.
Geopolitics
Iran-US deal moves toward G7 signature; Brent fell −10.9% on the week
The Iran-US story moved through three distinct phases in five trading sessions. Monday-Tuesday brought escalation — Iran missile strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain, the helicopter shoot-down, the US strikes on Iranian radar sites near Hormuz. Wednesday brought Trump's 'taking too long' threats. Thursday-Friday brought the reversal: Trump suspended planned Thursday-night strikes and publicly signalled an agreement could sign at the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains (15-17 June); Pakistan-led mediation relocated to Europe. Brent fell −10.9% on the week to $86.30, the lowest close since March; the Vault Hormuz indicator improved to RESTRICTED at ≈7.5 mb/d. Late Friday Trump introduced caveats by publicly disputing terms Iran's foreign ministry had leaked. The weekend signature watch is the cleanest single cross-asset trigger for Monday's regional and global open.
CNBC · Reuters · Axios · Wikipedia · this week
Macro
May CPI broadly in line, hot PPI; ECB hiked to 2.25%
Wednesday's May CPI release landed in line on headline (4.2% YoY, highest since April 2023) and modestly softer than feared on core (0.2% MoM versus 0.3% consensus; 2.9% YoY versus 2.8% consensus); energy accounted for 60% of the monthly all-items increase. Thursday's May PPI release surprised hot: +1.1% headline MoM and +0.8% core MoM — the biggest one-month core PPI increase since March 2022 — re-injecting concerns about pipeline inflation pressure. The European Central Bank delivered its first hike since 2023, lifting the deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.25% on the Iran-conflict energy premium pushing Eurozone inflation higher. Lagarde flagged upward projection revisions but stopped short of pre-committing to a July move. The combined release left the September-cut probability near 50%; the FOMC meets Tuesday-Wednesday with new projections and an updated dot plot.
BLS · ECB · CNBC · Bloomberg · this week
Equities
SpaceX listed at $161.11 (+19.3% debut) — largest IPO in market history
Friday's headline single-name story was SpaceX, which completed the largest initial public offering in market history. The stock opened at $135 on the New York Stock Exchange, traded as high as $176.52 intraday, and closed at $161.11 — a 19.3% pop that pushed the company's market capitalisation above $2 trillion and into the global top-10 by capitalisation. The Department of Justice was reported to have cleared the Paramount-Warner Bros Discovery merger, lifting both stocks sharply. Oracle Q4 fiscal-year results on Wednesday beat on revenue ($19.2bn vs $19.1bn cons) and EPS ($2.11 vs $1.89 cons) with RPO jumping $85 billion to $638 billion, but the FY26 free cash flow at −$23.7 billion sent the stock down 7%+ after-hours on the visible capex burn. Adobe Q2 on Thursday beat-and-raised (record revenue $6.62bn, ARR $27.1bn). The AI-capex narrative is now bifurcating: hyperscaler infrastructure builders face capex-burn concerns; software incumbents are monetising cleanly.
NYSE · CNBC · TheStreet · Oracle/Adobe IR · this week
How last Sunday's Cappuccino call aged.
Soft CPI; Iran MOU signs; chip dip-buying extends
Call: Sun 7 Jun: Soft May CPI core (below 3.0% YoY) restores disinflation read; Iran MOU signs; targets S&P >7,500, Brent <$92, Hormuz OPEN, US 10-Yr <4.40%, September cut 70%+.
Actual: Iran MOU did NOT sign this week — though Thursday-Friday brought a material shift in tone toward a G7-summit signature. May CPI was in line at 4.2%/2.9% (not below 3.0%); the MoM core at 0.2% was softer than 0.3% consensus but the YoY was above target. S&P closed at 7,431.46 (just below the 7,500 floor); Brent $86.30 ✓ (below $92); Hormuz still RESTRICTED (not OPEN); US 10-Yr 4.48% (above 4.40%); September cut at ~50% (below 70%). Partial-to-miss — the directional shift was right but the signature and rate-cut thresholds were not yet met.
Mixed CPI; markets stabilise into FOMC; ranges hold
Call: Sun 7 Jun: Mixed CPI; markets stabilise into FOMC; S&P 7,300–7,500; Brent $92–$100; Hormuz RESTRICTED; US 10-Yr 4.45–4.60%; September cut 45–60%.
Actual: CPI was indeed mixed (headline in line at 4.2%, core MoM softer); markets did stabilise into the FOMC weekend after a choppy Wed risk-off. S&P closed inside the range at 7,431.46 ✓; Hormuz held RESTRICTED ✓; US 10-Yr 4.48% ✓ (inside the 4.45-4.60% band); September cut at ~50% ✓ (inside the 45-60% range). Brent at $86.30 broke BELOW the $92 floor (the only range miss) on the late-week Iran de-escalation. Hit on four of five ranges; clean directional read.
Hot CPI confirms labour-market read; chip selloff extends
Call: Sun 7 Jun: Hot CPI (core 3.0%+) confirms labour-market signal; chip selloff extends; S&P −3 to −5%; Brent $100+; Hormuz CLOSED; US 10-Yr >4.65%; September cut <40%.
Actual: CPI core was 2.9% YoY (below the 3.0% threshold); chips actually recovered modestly through the week despite a Wednesday risk-off. S&P closed +0.7% on the week (the opposite of −3 to −5%); Brent $86.30 (well below $100); Hormuz did not close (improving to ≈7.5 mb/d); US 10-Yr 4.48% (below 4.65%); September cut ~50% (above 40%). Decisive miss — Bear was overweighted at 20%; the late-week Iran de-escalation rendered the thesis stale.
Brent fell 10.9% on the week on the Iran-deal G7 signal.
The week saw a dramatic compression of the regional risk premium. Brent crude fell −10.9% over the five trading sessions to $86.30 — a six-week low and the first close below $90 since 24 April. The path was uneven: Tue 9 Jun saw Brent open lower on early “end of hostilities” speculation, recover to $91.20 on the US strikes news; Wed traded back up to $93.10 on Trump’s “taking too long” rhetoric; Thursday-Friday fell sharply on Trump suspending strikes and signalling a G7 signature. Regional credit followed: Kuwait 5-year CDS widened sharply early-week (to +16 bps WTD by Tuesday) then narrowed back through Thursday-Friday to +7 bps WTD by Friday’s close; Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi all traded a similar pattern. ADX closed Friday +0.5% with the financials (Emirates NBD, FAB, ADCB) up 0.6-1.0%; Tadawul +0.6%; Kuwait Boursa +0.8%. Aramco −1.4% and ADNOC −1.1% Friday as Brent extended lower. The Vault Hormuz indicator improved to RESTRICTED at ≈7.5 mb/d.
The G7 summit at Évian (15-17 June) is the next signature checkpoint. The 52nd G7 summit will see Trump meet Mideast partners on the sidelines; the US-Iran agreement could sign as early as Sunday. A signed framework compresses Brent toward $80, tightens regional CDS another leg, and likely lifts regional banks in Monday’s Asian and European sessions. A failure to sign — or fresh public disagreement between Trump and the Iranian foreign ministry — pushes Brent back toward $95 and re-widens GCC credit. Vault Wealth’s house view: maintain the GCC overweight with a balanced energy + financials mix; the weekend G7 signature signal is the cleanest cross-asset trigger for Monday’s regional open. Pakistan-led mediation continues; the Iranian foreign-ministry channel remains the cleanest forward-looking signal.
Brent (Fri close)
$86.30
−10.9% on the week · 6-week low
Tadawul (week)
+0.6% Fri
Banks led; oil-linked names lagged
Hormuz throughput
≈7.5 mb/d
RESTRICTED · G7 summit signature watch
Three things to watch into the G7 + FOMC week.
The week of 15-19 June is unusual: two major anchors land in the same three-day window — the G7 summit at Évian (15-17 June) and the FOMC meeting (16-17 June). The combination puts the Iran-deal signature and the Fed’s revised dot plot into the same market window, with overlapping cross-asset implications for energy, duration and risk premia. The Powell-era policy framing under Warsh remains intact.
Watch 01
G7 summit signature is the energy and risk anchor
The 52nd G7 summit runs 15-17 June at Évian-les-Bains, France. Trump is expected to attend and to meet Mideast partners on the sidelines; the Pakistan-led mediation team relocated to Europe last week. A signed Iran-US framework — possibly as early as Sunday — compresses Brent toward $80, brings the Hormuz indicator back toward OPEN, and likely lifts Asian and European Monday opens. A failure to sign or a fresh public disagreement pushes Brent back toward $95 and re-widens GCC credit spreads. The official Iranian foreign-ministry channel remains the cleanest forward-looking signal. Late Friday Trump publicly disputed leaked Iranian terms — a fresh caveat heading into the weekend; investors should treat any official signing-ceremony location announcement as the cleanest confirmation.
Watch 02
FOMC dot plot is the rate-path anchor
The Fed meets Tuesday-Wednesday (16-17 June) with new staff projections and an updated dot plot. The Vault Wealth base case is a hawkish hold with the median 2026 dot pushing the September cut into Q4 — but the inconsistent inflation data (hot PPI, soft MoM core CPI, sticky services ex-shelter at 3.1% YoY) leaves a wider range than usual around that view. The dispersion across the dots will tell investors how much of the FOMC sees the current data as a transitory energy shock versus a more persistent demand-side problem. Powell's press conference is the highest-conviction macro signal of the next two weeks. The September-cut probability sits near 50%; hawkish statement language likely pushes it below 40%, a dovish lean above 60%.
Watch 03
The AI-capex bifurcation continues to play out
The week made two things clearer about the AI-capex cycle. First, the infrastructure layer is now visibly burning capex — Oracle's FY26 free cash flow at −$23.7 billion (with plans to raise $40 billion via debt and equity in 2027) joined Broadcom and Marvell as visible cash-burn names. Second, the software layer is monetising cleanly — Adobe's beat-and-raise with ARR at $27.10 billion is the third consecutive enterprise software AI-monetisation confirmation. Vault Wealth's view: investors should consider a relative-value preference for AI-exposed software incumbents over single-name hyperscaler infrastructure builds during this phase of the run. Light tech earnings calendar this week; the chip names will trade primarily on the FOMC reaction and on G7 signature flow.