The Iran war ends: futures jump, oil collapses, FOMC ahead.

Sunday’s Iran-US deal announcement re-set the geopolitical overhang materially. US futures gapped higher overnight, Asian markets rallied sharply, and crude collapsed roughly 4-5%. The cards below carry the four readings that set the tone into the cash open — the detailed account follows in the section below.

President Trump announced Sunday — hours before departing for the G7 summit in Évian — that the US and Iran had reached a comprehensive agreement to end the war. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed that both sides had agreed to immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday 19 June in Switzerland. The framework provides for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports against staged sanctions relief, continued IAEA-supervised uranium-stockpile negotiations, and the release of remaining detained personnel. The Pakistani-led mediation team, with Qatari and Saudi backing, will travel to Switzerland for the signing.

The market response is the cleanest single signal of the year. US futures gapped sharply higher overnight: Dow +440 pts (+0.9%), S&P 500 +1.14%, Nasdaq +1.79%. Asian markets rallied: South Korea’s Kospi +5.1%, Japan’s Nikkei +3.6%, Australia’s ASX 200 +1.3%. Crude collapsed: WTI futures −4.77% to $80.83 per barrel, Brent −4% to $83.77; gold gave back another 1.4% as the safe-haven bid faded sharply. The Vault Hormuz indicator moves to NEAR-OPEN at ≈12 mb/d as commercial operators price the formal Friday signature and the staged reopening that follows. Treasury yields opened little changed in pre-market — the de-escalation pulls the geopolitical premium out of duration but the dovish-Fed read still requires the FOMC dot plot Wednesday to confirm. The week ahead is now bracketed by two anchors: the FOMC meeting (Tue-Wed) and the formal Iran signing (Fri). The G7 summit at Évian runs Mon-Wed; Trump arrives Monday and will meet Mideast partners on the sidelines.

Each card below opens with a Spotlight row driving last week’s narrative for that asset class. Toggle the Week ⇄ YTD control above any spotlight to flip the entire card. Note: these are Friday close numbers — Sunday-night futures and Asia-open moves are captured in the snapshot above, not in the cards below.

The setup tilts Bull and Base roughly even this week. Bull 40% requires the Friday signing ceremony to deliver cleanly AND the FOMC dot plot Wednesday to support the September-cut path; that combination extends equities to fresh highs and pulls Brent toward $80. Base 45% has the signing on track but the FOMC delivering a hawkish hold that limits the duration relief — a wider equity range with energy continuing lower. Bear 15% is a last-mile Iran-deal breakdown or a hawkish FOMC that pushes the September cut firmly into Q4. Each card carries the thesis, the Vault positioning note, and asset-level targets for Friday’s close.

A full five-session week dominated by two anchors: the FOMC meeting (Tue-Wed, 16-17 June) with new staff projections and an updated dot plot, and the formal Iran-US signing ceremony in Switzerland Friday 19 June. The G7 summit at Évian (Mon-Wed) frames the diplomatic backdrop. US calendar: Empire State manufacturing Mon, retail sales Tue, housing starts + FOMC decision Wed (Powell press conference 14:30 ET), Philadelphia Fed + jobless claims Thu, quadruple witching options expiry Fri. Watch the official signing-ceremony location and time announcement during the week — it will be the single most informative cross-asset trigger alongside the FOMC dot plot.

Sunday’s Iran-US deal announcement triggers a material compression of the regional risk premium across the GCC. Saudi 5-year CDS opens the week roughly 12-15 bps tighter than Friday’s close; UAE eurobond spreads extend the prior-week tightening another 5 bps; Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait CDS all open materially tighter. The Vault Hormuz indicator moves to NEAR-OPEN at approximately 12 mb/d — the highest read since the conflict began — as commercial operators price the formal Friday signature and the staged reopening that follows. ADX, DFM, Tadawul and the Qatar Stock Exchange all open with the dual positive signal: regional financials (Emirates NBD, FAB, QNB, Al Rajhi) lead on the rates-relief read; energy producers (Aramco, ADNOC) give back as Brent falls through $84.

For the week, the regional positioning question is now the cleanest it has been since the conflict began. Vault Wealth’s view: maintain GCC overweight but materially rotate the mix — favour regional financials (banks, real estate developers) over energy producers while Brent re-prices toward $80. The signed-MOU outcome — which has now been verbally agreed and is formally signing Friday — pulls regional sovereign and corporate spreads toward levels last seen in early March. Trump will meet Mideast partners on the sidelines of the G7 summit; the cleanest cross-asset signal of any post-signing complications would come through that channel. The FOMC Wednesday adds the second variable: a dovish hold extends the regional bid, a hawkish hold compresses regional bank multiples.

Three sequential events define the week: the FOMC meeting Tuesday-Wednesday with the new dot plot, the formal Iran-US signing ceremony in Switzerland Friday, and the G7 summit at Évian running across the same window. The Powell-era policy framing under Warsh remains intact heading into Wednesday’s decision.