Hormuz · RESTRICTED
≈6.8 mb/d vs ~20 mb/d pre-crisis · ceasefire holding, tensions live
As of Sat 9 May 2026, 06:30 GST
A three-record week, capped by the strongest jobs print of the year
April payrolls came in +115K vs 65K consensus; unemployment held at 4.3%. The S&P and Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs for the third time in five sessions, the VIX collapsed to 13.78 (its lowest post-FOMC reading), and Brent finished the week down nearly 6% despite a +1% Friday lift on a tanker incident. The week’s standout story is the dispersion behind the cap-weighted print — eight of eleven S&P sectors green, one (Energy) doing the heavy lifting on the downside.
7,398.93
S&P 500 (Fri close)
+0.84% · 3rd ATH this week
26,247.08
Nasdaq (Fri close)
+1.71% · biggest day in 6 sessions
+115K
April Nonfarm Payrolls
vs 65K est · UR 4.3% steady
−6.0%
Brent (weekly)
$101.29 close · deal hopes won the week
A jobs print, two tankers, and a market that didn't flinch
April nonfarm payrolls came in at +115,000 against a consensus of +65,000; unemployment held at 4.3% and average hourly earnings printed +0.4% MoM. The Treasury curve added three basis points across the belly on the inflation pass-through, but rate-cut odds barely moved — September now prices at ~55% versus 60% pre-print. The “good news is good news” tone returned in equities, which read the report as confirmation that growth is fine without a Fed cut to keep it that way.
Geopolitically, Friday delivered the second UAE missile attack of the week (intercepted) and a US Navy operation that disabled two empty Iranian tankers attempting to break the blockade. The tenuous April-8 ceasefire formally held; markets read both events as priced. The S&P closed +0.84% at 7,398.93, the Nasdaq +1.71% at 26,247.08 — both fresh ATHs. Powell delivered his valedictory remarks at the Hoover panel Thursday afternoon: measured, no surprises, signalled continuity through the chair handover. Warsh’s full Senate vote keys to Tuesday or Wednesday next week.
The cross-asset scoreboard
A textbook risk-on Friday: every major global index green, volatility back toward the year’s lows, oil bouncing modestly off a six-percent weekly drawdown, dollar slightly firmer on the strong jobs print.
7,398.93
S&P 500 (Fri close)
+0.84% · third ATH this week
26,247.08
Nasdaq (Fri close)
+1.71% · biggest one-day in six sessions
13.78
VIX
−7.6% · back to post-FOMC lows
$101.29
Brent (weekly)
−6.0% · deal-hopes won the week
| S&P 500 | 7,398.93 | +0.84% |
| Nasdaq | 26,247.08 | +1.71% |
| FTSE 100 | 8,825.04 | +0.57% |
| DAX | 24,420.70 | +0.76% |
| Nikkei 225 | 42,510.80 | +0.71% |
| Hang Seng | 26,640.20 | +0.61% |
| VIX | 13.78 | −7.64% |
| Brent Crude | $101.29 | +1.04% |
| WTI Crude | $94.58 | +0.85% |
| Gold | $4,512.40 | +0.32% |
| Silver | $72.18 | −0.37% |
| Nat Gas (NYMEX) | $4.85 | −1.42% |
| 10-Yr Treasury | 4.45% | +3 bps |
| 30-Yr Treasury | 5.07% | +3 bps |
| 2-Yr Treasury | 3.86% | +2 bps |
| Bund 10-Yr | 2.67% | +2 bps |
| US Dollar Index | 98.45 | +0.15% |
| EUR / USD | 1.0744 | −0.13% |
| USD / JPY | 152.02 | +0.12% |
| USD / AED | 3.6725 | 0.00% |
| Bitcoin | $83,560 | +1.52% |
Sector dispersion — 9 ppts between best and worst
S&P 500 sector performance for the five-session week. Tech (+5.2%) led on AMD’s data-centre print and the read-through to Nvidia, Micron and the cap-equipment names; Energy (−3.8%) was the lone meaningful drag as Brent gave back nearly all of Monday’s Hormuz spike. Eight of eleven sectors closed green; the spread between best and worst is the widest weekly dispersion since the FOMC week in mid-March.
Where the week's 9 ppts of dispersion went
S&P 500 sector performance · week ending Fri 8 May 2026. Tech vs Energy is the week's defining trade — a 9.0 ppts best-to-worst spread.
Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FT, S&P Dow Jones Indices. Sector totals are weekly close-to-close % changes for the eleven GICS sectors of the S&P 500.
High intra-index dispersion in a record-printing week is unusual. It says the index level is being carried by a narrow leadership group — and that the next leg of the rally requires either Energy to stop fading or the breadth indicators to confirm what the cap-weighted print is showing.
What carried the week's tape
Macro
April NFP +115K vs 65K — strongest beat in four months
Payrolls printed almost double consensus. Healthcare and leisure led; manufacturing returned a small gain after two flat months. Unemployment held at 4.3%; average hourly earnings +0.4% MoM. The Treasury belly added 3 bps but Sept-cut odds barely moved — confirmation that growth is fine without a cut, not a flag for a hawkish surprise.
Reuters · CNBC · Bloomberg · Fri 8 May
Geopolitics
US disables two Iranian tankers; UAE intercepts second salvo
The US Navy fired on and disabled two empty Iran-flagged tankers attempting to break the blockade. Iran launched a second missile-and-drone salvo at the UAE — air defence engaged two ballistic missiles and three drones successfully. Both events were absorbed without market re-pricing; the April-8 ceasefire formally held. A formal Iranian written response to the 1-page MoU is now expected over the weekend.
CNBC · AP · Reuters · Al Jazeera · Fri 8 May
AI Capex
AMD finishes the week +25% — chip cohort takes the rally
AMD added another 3.6% Friday, taking its weekly gain to +25% — the largest five-session move since 2022. Nvidia closed at a fifth ATH, Micron at three more, and Broadcom +9% on the week as the data-centre print rippled into HBM and networking names. SOX index +7.4% on the week — its best week since November.
Reuters · Bloomberg · CNBC · Fri 8 May
A strong week in the GCC despite the tanker headlines
DFM finished the week +3.4%, ADX +2.7% and Tadawul +1.9% — broad-based GCC strength that decoupled from Friday’s tanker news. UAE 10-year eurobond spreads tightened a further 3 bps Friday to a 15-bps cumulative reversal of Monday’s widening; Saudi 5-year CDS is now below the war-trigger level for the first time since the conflict began. The credit market has effectively signed the deal already.
The local oil bid continued to anchor regional equities — Aramco closed +1.4% on the week despite Brent’s −6%; ADNOC +2.1%. Hormuz throughput sits at ~6.8 mb/d, a slight downtick from Thursday on the tanker incidents, but commercial transit continues. The indicator stays RESTRICTED through the weekend; an Iranian written response is expected by Monday.
Brent in dirhams
AED 372.04 /bbl
+1.0% Fri · −6% on the week
DFM Index (weekly)
+3.4%
Best week since the April ceasefire
UAE 10-yr eurobond
−15 bps cumulative
Credit has the deal · equity is following
Hormuz throughput
≈6.8 mb/d
RESTRICTED · ceasefire holding
Want to discuss what this means for your portfolio?
Book a meeting with a Vault Wealth advisor for a personalised read on positioning, hedging and regional risk in the current environment.
Three things to watch into next week
A record-printing week with widening dispersion underneath, a Fed-chair handover, an Iranian response window that closes Monday morning, and an AI capex story that just keeps adding legs. The setup into the new week is dense.
01 · Breadth
Watch the breadth, not the level
Three records in a week with eight of eleven sectors green looks broad on the surface — but Tech alone contributed roughly 60% of the index move, and Energy gave back 3.8%. The S&P advance/decline and equal-weighted index are both lagging the cap-weighted print. If Energy stops fading next week, breadth confirms; if not, the Tech-only rally is at risk of a reversion bid.
02 · Binary
Iran's written response is the binary
The verbal walk-back from Rezaei was Thursday. Pakistani back-channels reportedly secured a commitment to a written response by Monday morning Tehran time. If it arrives and accepts the framework, the Hormuz indicator flips OPEN, Brent fades another $5–8, and the September cut comes off the table on disinflation alone. If it doesn't, every move since Tuesday afternoon reverses, fast.
03 · Curve
Warsh's full-Senate vote hits the curve
The Senate floor vote on the new Fed chair is keyed to Tuesday or Wednesday. Powell's measured Hoover remarks lowered the bar for a smooth handover; the curve is positioned for continuity. The risk is asymmetric: a smoother-than-priced confirmation pulls the 30-year back toward 4.95%; a bumpy one pushes through 5.10%. Stay duration-light through Wednesday's print.