Records on a life-support day — and the long end did the worrying
The Sun-night gap reverted in cash: Brent settled +2.97% at $104.30 (off intraday lows near $98), the S&P added +0.19% to 7,412.84 — a fourth fresh ATH in six sessions — and the Nasdaq nudged +0.10% higher to 26,274.13. The bond market did the worrying: 30-year yields added 2 bps to 5.09%, taking the 2s30s spread to 121 bps — the steepest reading since the Iran war began. Today’s calendar is dense: Warsh’s full-Senate vote, Bostic and Daly speakers, and PPI ahead of Wednesday’s CPI print.
7,412.84
S&P 500 (Mon close)
+0.19% · fresh ATH
$104.30
Brent (Mon close)
+2.97% · Iran-rejection bid
4.48%
US 10-Yr
+3 bps · long-end firmer into CPI
Warsh
Today's calendar
Senate floor vote · CPI tomorrow
Equity records on a day Trump called the ceasefire on life support
President Trump described the US–Iran ceasefire as “on life support” Monday afternoon, hours after rejecting Tehran’s weekend MoU response. The framing kept the bombing-bracket fully active and pulled Brent +2.97% to $104.30 on the day — but the Sun-night intraday low near $98 says the front-month is still pricing more of a negotiating posture than a kinetic escalation. The S&P, Nasdaq, Dow and Russell 2000 all closed at fresh records, with the Russell’s print quietly the most interesting: small caps leading on a day the geopolitical bracket widened is not how the textbook reads.
The cleaner re-pricing was in rates. The 30-year yield added 2 bps to 5.09%, taking the cumulative back-up since April 11 to 24 bps; the 10-year sits at 4.48%, up 16 bps over the same window. The 2s30s spread now stands at 121 bps — the steepest reading since the conflict began — and the curve is telling a bear-steepener story (long-end led, short-end anchored): markets are pricing both the inflation impulse from a sustained oil shock and the supply-side risk of a Fed chair transition into an unanchored geopolitical environment. Today’s Warsh confirmation vote and Wednesday’s CPI print will either validate or unwind that move.
A split tape — US records, Europe and Asia heavy
US benchmarks all closed green on Iran-rejection day; FTSE, DAX, Nikkei and Hang Seng each gave back 0.3–0.7% on the geopolitical re-rating. Brent settled +3% — the cleanest single asset to read the news. The bond market took the inflation impulse seriously: the long end led, the front end was anchored, the 2s30s spread widened to 121 bps.
7,412.84
S&P 500 (Mon close)
+0.19% — 4th ATH in 6 sessions
$104.30
Brent (Mon close)
+2.97% — biggest one-day since 4 May
5.09%
US 30-Yr
+2 bps — long-end into CPI tomorrow
14.48
VIX
+5% — modest hedge bid on Iran rejection
| S&P 500 | 7,412.84 | +0.19% |
| Nasdaq | 26,274.13 | +0.10% |
| Dow Jones | 49,704.50 | +0.19% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,872.40 | +0.50% |
| VIX | 14.48 | +5.08% |
| FTSE 100 | 8,797.80 | −0.31% |
| DAX | 24,358.60 | −0.26% |
| Nikkei 225 | 42,210.40 | −0.71% |
| Hang Seng | 26,512.60 | −0.48% |
| Brent Crude | $104.30 | +2.97% |
| WTI Crude | $97.30 | +2.88% |
| Gold | $4,545.60 | +0.74% |
| Silver | $72.80 | +0.86% |
| Nat Gas (NYMEX) | $5.02 | +3.50% |
| US 2-Yr | 3.88% | +2 bps |
| US 10-Yr | 4.48% | +3 bps |
| US 30-Yr | 5.09% | +2 bps |
| Bund 10-Yr | 2.69% | +2 bps |
| UAE 10-Yr eurobond | spread wider | +4 bps |
| EUR / USD | 1.0738 | −0.06% |
| USD / JPY | 152.18 | +0.11% |
| USD / AED | 3.6725 | 0.00% |
| US Dollar Index | 98.55 | +0.10% |
| Bitcoin | $83,810 | +0.30% |
The yield curve bear-steepened
Chart of the Day
The yield curve steepened through the weekend
US Treasury curve at three snapshots — a month ago, last Friday's close, and Monday's close. The front end has barely moved; the long end has ratcheted higher into the Powell → Warsh handover and Wednesday's CPI print. 2s30s widened to ~121 bps — the steepest reading since the Iran war began six weeks ago.
Sources: US Treasury, Bloomberg, Reuters. Yields shown are end-of-day Treasury constant maturity readings; the month-ago series is the close on Mon 13 April 2026.
What carried the week's tape
Fed
Warsh full-Senate confirmation vote keyed for today
Kevin Warsh's full-floor vote is on the Senate calendar today. He cleared the Banking Committee 13–11 last fortnight on a party-line vote; the floor vote is expected to be similarly partisan. Powell's term as chair ends Friday, with Warsh taking over the desk immediately after. Two Fed regional speakers (Bostic, Daly) also on the calendar this morning — the curve is positioned for continuity, not a hawkish-handover surprise.
Reuters · CNBC · Bloomberg · Mon 11 May
Geopolitics
Trump: ceasefire "on life support" after Iran rejection
President Trump described the April-8 ceasefire as "on life support" Monday afternoon, hours after rejecting Iran's weekend MoU response. The framing kept the bombing-bracket fully active without escalating the rhetoric. Brent gave back roughly half of its Sun-night gap during the US session — the futures market is still pricing more of a negotiating posture than an imminent kinetic move. Hormuz throughput is trending lower at ~5.2 mb/d.
CNBC · AP · Reuters · Al Jazeera · Mon 11 May
Macro
April CPI lands Wednesday — the print of the week
Consensus is +0.3% MoM headline / +0.3% core, with the YoY rate ticking up to 3.0% headline / 3.2% core. The risk is to the upside on energy pass-through from the Hormuz crisis; April's Brent average was the highest since 2024. A core surprise above 0.4% would re-price the curve materially lower — Sept-cut OIS currently sits near 55%. Watch shelter and services ex-energy as the structural read.
CME FedWatch · Bloomberg · Mon 11 May
GCC gave back last week's gains as the deal evaporated
Cash markets opened Mon with the Iran-rejection re-priced in. DFM closed −1.1% (reversing about a third of last week’s +3.4%), ADX −0.8%, Tadawul −0.4%. The credit gap that had opened between GCC spreads and equity widened back the other way: UAE 10-year eurobond spreads added 7 bps Mon (cumulative reversal of last week’s tightening now at half), Saudi 5-year CDS lifted 8 bps to back through the war-trigger level. Aramco was the cleanest outperformer at +1.6% on the +3% Brent move.
The MENA bias for the rest of the week is defensive but not panicked. Oil-linked names remain the carry trade as long as Brent holds above $100; banking and developer exposure is being trimmed across the desk. Watch the UAE 10-year eurobond spread — if it widens more than 15 bps on the week, the credit market is telling you the bear-scenario is being priced through; if it stabilises near current levels, the bracket is being held at negotiating posture rather than kinetic escalation.
DFM (Mon close)
−1.1%
Reverses ~⅓ of last week's gain
Saudi 5-yr CDS
+8 bps
Back through war-trigger level
Brent in dirhams
AED 383.10 /bbl
+3% Mon · still −5% on last week
Aramco (Riyadh)
+1.6%
Cleanest GCC outperformer on the +3% Brent
Three trades for today
A bear-steepened curve, a deal that didn’t sign, equities at records anyway, and a CPI print 24 hours away. The session ahead is genuinely binary on more than one axis.
Trade 01
The Warsh vote is the only print until 14:30 ET tomorrow
The full-Senate floor vote is expected late morning ET. A clean party-line confirmation (13–11 again or close to it) pulls the 30-year back toward 5.00%; a bumpy one — any defections, any procedural delay — sends it through 5.10%. Stay duration-light until the gavel falls. The 2s30s 121 bps spread is the trade-pricing variable to watch.
Trade 02
Brent's $98 intraday low says this isn't a 4-May redux
Mon settled $104.30 but the front-month touched $98 during the US session — a 6% intraday range with $98 holding as support. Compare to Mon 4 May when Brent gapped to $114.44 and never breathed back to $108. The market is pricing this rejection as a rhetorical fade not a kinetic move. Iron-condor structures over directional puts.
Trade 03
April CPI is the regime decider
Consensus is +0.3% MoM headline / +0.3% core. A core above 0.4% prints the bear-steepener thesis correct and the 30-year goes through 5.15% by Thursday; a core at or below 0.2% unwinds the entire long-end back-up. Equities will follow rates, not lead. Vault clients with material duration exposure should be sizing the print symmetrically — the asymmetry is in the bond market, not the equity market.