Trump: war 'very close to over' — Pakistan army chief lands in Tehran as Iranian ships keep crossing
The most direct signal yet from the White House came Thursday: Donald Trump told reporters the war with Iran is “very close to over.” The comment is unscripted, unhedged, and without the usual diplomatic qualifications that have softened previous positive signals. Combined with Pakistan’s army chief arriving in Tehran to push fresh US-Iran talks — the third major third-party mediation attempt in two weeks — and the market’s response tells the story clearly: the S&P 500 has crossed 7,000 for the first time in its history.
The detail that validates Trump’s read rather than contradicting it is this: Iranian ships are continuing to cross the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade. The US Navy, with three carrier groups and ten destroyers in position, has the capacity to enforce a full closure but is apparently not doing so for all vessels. This selective enforcement is not a failure of the blockade — it is, in all probability, the architecture of a deal being negotiated in real time. A complete closure would maximise pressure but minimise Iran’s political ability to agree without appearing to capitulate. Partial enforcement gives Tehran the physical exit it needs. The blockade, in effect, is being calibrated as a diplomatic instrument rather than an absolute military shutdown.
The UAE confirmed this morning that schools will return to in-person learning on Monday. This is the single clearest normalcy signal from the UAE government since the conflict began in early March — more than six weeks of remote learning for hundreds of thousands of children will end. For the hundreds of international businesses, families, and government institutions that use school reopening as a proxy for security conditions, this is an unambiguous all-clear. It lands on the same day as S&P 7,000 and Trump’s “very close to over” comment — a confluence of signals that the acute phase of the conflict is ending.
S&P crosses 7,000 for the first time — Nikkei approaching 60,000; VIX at conflict low
S&P 7,000 is a first-ever milestone. Asian markets lead the global rally. Oil stable near $91; down from Monday’s $104.85 peak but finding a floor as the deal nears. Yields rising (growth repricing) while USD weakens — the clearest sign yet of war-premium unwind.
7,022
S&P 500
First close above 7,000 in index history
18.17
VIX
New conflict low · fourth daily decline
$91.36
WTI
Stable near $91 · market looking past blockade
59,550
Nikkei
60,000 milestone within striking distance
| S&P 500 | 7,022.95 | +0.80% |
| NASDAQ | 24,016.02 | +1.59% |
| Dow Jones | 48,463.72 | −0.15% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,713.66 | +0.30% |
| VIX | 18.17 | −1.03% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,559.58 | −0.47% |
| DAX | 24,066.70 | +0.09% |
| CAC 40 | 8,274.57 | −0.64% |
| Nikkei 225 | 59,549.59 | +2.43% |
| KOSPI | 6,214.89 | +2.03% |
| Hang Seng | 26,252.67 | +1.18% |
| Sensex | 78,111.24 | +1.64% |
| WTI Crude | $91.36 | +0.07% |
| Brent Crude | $94.82 | −0.12% |
| Gold | $4,846 | +0.47% |
| Silver | $80.61 | +1.23% |
| 10-Yr Treasury | 4.282% | +0.61% |
| EUR / USD | 1.1819 | +0.14% |
| GBP / USD | 1.3586 | +0.19% |
| USD / JPY | 158.53 | −0.26% |
What S&P 7,000 means — and why a weakening dollar matters more
The S&P 500 at 7,000 is not merely a round number. It is a market judgment rendered in real time: the conflict will resolve before it causes structural economic damage. The trajectory from the Monday peak of the crisis — when WTI hit $104.85, VIX spiked above 20, and talks collapsed in Islamabad — to Thursday’s 7,000 print is a four-session re-rating of geopolitical risk. Markets moved before Trump spoke. When the President then confirmed publicly that the war is “very close to over,” equities were already there. This sequencing matters: the market led political reality, not the other way around.
The more technically significant signal on Thursday is not the S&P milestone — it is the simultaneous weakening of the US dollar. The USD Index fell 0.17% even as yields rose 0.61%, and EUR/USD and GBP/USD both strengthened. This pattern is characteristic of a “war premium unwind”: the safe-haven demand for dollars that built during the acute conflict phase is now reversing. A weakening dollar with rising yields and rising equities is a specific regime — it says the market is pricing faster global growth, not just US relief. The practical implication: emerging market assets, commodities priced in dollars, and risk assets broadly should continue to benefit as this unwind plays out.
On oil, the stabilisation at $91 for WTI is instructive. The market is not pricing a complete reopening of Hormuz — it is pricing a partial, negotiated normalisation. Iranian ships are still crossing, which means the physical disruption is less than a full closure would imply. The IEA’s two-month lag warning from Wednesday remains valid: even after a formal deal, expect a gradual return to normal shipping patterns rather than an instant supply surge. That means oil is unlikely to collapse below $80 in the near term even in a full ceasefire scenario — there is a physical scarcity premium that will persist through the reopening adjustment period.
What else you need to know from the past 24 hours
Confirmed
UAE schools confirmed returning to in-person learning Monday — remote since early March
The UAE Ministry of Education confirmed Thursday that schools will return to full in-person learning from Monday, 20 April — ending more than six weeks of remote learning that began when the conflict intensified in early March. The announcement is the most concrete normalcy signal to emerge from the UAE government since the crisis began. For the families of hundreds of thousands of students, the thousands of businesses whose operations revolve around school-day patterns, and the international community watching the UAE's resilience barometer, this confirmation carries significant weight. It lands alongside Trump's "very close to over" comment and S&P 7,000 — three independent signals converging on the same conclusion: the acute crisis phase is ending.
The National · UAE Ministry of Education
IMF Spring Meetings
IMF chief warns 'we must brace for tough times' — but markets are already past that
At the IMF's Spring Meetings in Washington, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the global economy must brace for tough times as the Iran conflict's effects ripple through supply chains, food systems, and energy markets. The IMF's concern is real and grounded: the humanitarian and economic costs of the Hormuz blockade — particularly on developing economies dependent on Gulf trade routes — will not vanish with a ceasefire. However, equity markets at S&P 7,000 are emphatically disagreeing with the IMF's tone. The divergence is a classic pattern: markets price the endpoint; institutions account for the transition costs. Both can be simultaneously correct — a deal can come soon and the economic adjustment can still be painful for significant parts of the world.
The National · IMF
Infrastructure
UAE signs $2.3 billion railway deal with Jordan — Gulf-Levant connectivity advances despite war
Sheikh Mansour witnessed the signing of a $2.3 billion UAE-Jordan railway project deal Thursday, a significant infrastructure commitment that signals UAE confidence in long-term regional stability even as the conflict continues. The railway project — connecting Jordanian logistics corridors — is part of broader Gulf investment in land-based connectivity infrastructure that reduces dependence on sea routes through the Strait of Hormuz. The timing is deliberate: signing a multi-billion infrastructure deal during an active blockade is a statement of institutional confidence in the region's future. For investors, it also points to where Gulf capital sees the long-term opportunity: overland trade infrastructure that the current crisis has demonstrated is strategically essential.
WAM · The National
Lebanon
Lebanon-Israel track advances: Ortagus and Lebanese negotiator attend joint Washington event
US envoy Morgan Ortagus and Lebanese banker Nicholas Sehnaoui — who has emerged as a key unofficial Lebanese interlocutor — attended a Holocaust remembrance event together in Washington, a carefully calibrated signal of the warming Lebanon-Israel track. The joint public appearance follows Wednesday's "productive discussions" between Israeli and Lebanese delegations and is designed to normalise the political optics of engagement. For the regional conflict architecture, the Lebanon track matters enormously: Iran has historically used its relationship with Hezbollah and its influence in Lebanon as leverage in any Iran deal. If Lebanon moves toward a bilateral arrangement with Israel independently, it removes that leverage — which explains both the progress and the fragility of this track.
The National · Reuters
UAE milestones stack up: passport, railway, schools, and Gulf diplomacy
Thursday has been a milestone day for the UAE on multiple fronts. Beyond the school reopening announcement, the UAE passport was confirmed as the world’s joint second most powerful — a symbolic but meaningful marker of how the conflict has, if anything, elevated global perception of the UAE as a safe, stable, and internationally respected jurisdiction. Passport power rankings reflect visa-free access, which in turn reflects the bilateral trust relationships a country has built; that the UAE ranks second globally during an active regional conflict is a notable achievement.
The $2.3 billion Jordan railway deal signed by Sheikh Mansour tells a parallel story: the UAE is not in crisis mode. It is using this moment to deepen infrastructure ties with neighbouring Arab states, reduce Hormuz dependency in trade routing, and demonstrate that Gulf capital allocation is accelerating rather than retreating. The European Council chief’s continued Gulf tour — now in Qatar following the UAE visit earlier this week — confirms that Western institutions are treating the Gulf as a stabilising force in the conflict rather than a peripheral actor. For the UAE’s long-term positioning as the region’s leading financial and logistics hub, this week is a net positive.
On the security dimension, a US official (Kash Patel) described Iran as a “perpetual bad” cyber actor — signalling that even as diplomatic tracks advance, the intelligence and security establishments are not lowering their guard. This is standard practice in conflict resolution: political and diplomatic progress proceeds while security agencies maintain maximum defensive posture. Investors should read this as a normal feature of the current phase, not as a contradiction of the peace signals.
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From crisis to countdown — the signals that matter from here
01 · Regime shift
S&P 7,000 is not a ceiling — it may be a new floor for the post-war rally
History of conflict-resolution re-ratings suggests that once a market convincingly crosses a psychological milestone on the back of peace signals, it does not retreat below that level absent a reversal. The S&P crossing 7,000 with Trump's "very close to over" as the catalyst means institutional money has to make a decision: stay underweight the US market at 7,000+ or participate in the re-rating. Systematic funds and passive flows will help lock in the level. Watch for 7,000 to become a base rather than a peak — the post-announcement rally in a deal scenario is likely to add another 3-5% from here.
02 · Watch
Pakistan as mediator: the back-channel that could unlock the deal
Pakistan's army chief in Tehran is the third major third-party mediation push in two weeks — after Qatar and Oman failed to broker a return to the Islamabad framework. Pakistan has a unique combination of assets: it is a Muslim-majority country with security ties to both the US (historically) and warm relations with Iran; it has nuclear credibility that Tehran respects; and it has strong economic incentives (fertiliser imports, trade routes) to end the blockade urgently. If Pakistan's army chief carries a revised US framework that Tehran can accept — particularly on the nuclear programme's civilian dimensions — this could be the mediation that works. Watch for any mention of a follow-up meeting or joint statement from Tehran.
03 · Watch
Dollar weakness: the underappreciated trade of the resolution
The USD Index falling 0.17% on a day when yields rose 0.61% is the signal that the war premium unwind has begun in the currency market. Emerging market currencies, gold, silver, and commodities broadly priced in dollars will benefit disproportionately from continued dollar weakness. Gold at $4,846 with oil stable at $91 means the safe-haven demand is now shifting from dollars to physical metals. For GCC investors, the AED peg means no direct FX exposure, but the portfolio implications of a weaker dollar environment — in non-USD equity and commodity allocations — are significant and worth reviewing with your advisor.
04 · Watch
The IMF-market divergence: who is right, and does it matter?
The IMF warning of "tough times" while the S&P hits 7,000 is a genuine tension, not just a talking-head contradiction. Both can be right simultaneously: markets price the resolution and the US recovery; the IMF accounts for the transition costs borne by developing economies, food-insecure populations, and disrupted supply chains. The divergence matters for asset allocation: US large-cap equities are already pricing a clean resolution; emerging market and frontier assets may still be pricing the IMF's transition-cost scenario. That gap is where opportunity exists — particularly in emerging market infrastructure, agriculture, and logistics sectors that will benefit from post-war normalisation but have not yet re-rated with US equities.