Equities up, oil up, gold up, bonds up
A broad-based relief rally followed Treasury Secretary Bessent’s confirmation that the US is allowing Iranian tankers safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent eased from last week’s $105 peak but still closed higher on the day; the S&P printed its best session since the Iran war began. Gold crossed $5,000 for the first time.
6,699.38
S&P 500
+1.01% · best session since Iran war began
$102.91
Brent
+2.69% · eased from $105 peak
23.51
VIX
−13.53% · still elevated
$5,043
Gold
+0.82% · above $5,000 first time
Hormuz safe passage sparks relief — but oil stays above $100
Brent crude settled at $102.91, easing from last week’s $105 peak after Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed the US is allowing Iranian tankers safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. US stocks responded with their best session since the Iran war began; the S&P 500 gained 1.01% and the Nasdaq rose 1.22%.
The relief comes with caveats. Gulf importers are racing to reroute supply chains as Hormuz disruptions jolt trade flows, and the IEA is considering further strategic reserve releases. Trump has asked seven countries to join a Hormuz policing coalition — framing the strait as contested space requiring multilateral enforcement. Whether Hormuz reopens fully or remains contested will determine whether oil settles back toward $85 or grinds toward the $120–$200 range some analysts now consider plausible.
A muddle-through signal
Equities rallied broadly on the Hormuz pullback, but oil itself continued climbing — meaning the relief is built on diplomatic expectations rather than actual supply normalisation. Treasuries rallied in parallel, gold pushed above $5,000, and the VIX dropped sharply but remains elevated at 23.51. The combination of equities up, bonds up, gold up, and oil still climbing prices in a muddle-through scenario: enough progress to avoid worst-case Hormuz closure, but not enough to restore pre-war energy pricing.
The precious metals complex — gold above $5,000, silver at $82.70, platinum surging 3.13% — signals that hard-asset demand is structural, not tactical. Standard 60/40 models were not built for a world where all four asset classes move in the same direction simultaneously.
| S&P 500 | 6,699.38 | +1.01% |
| Nasdaq | 22,374.18 | +1.22% |
| Dow 30 | 46,946.41 | +0.83% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,503.29 | +0.94% |
| VIX | 23.51 | −13.53% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,317.69 | +0.55% |
| DAX | 23,564.01 | +0.50% |
| Nikkei 225 | 54,002.13 | +0.47% |
| Hang Seng | 26,088.07 | +0.98% |
| KOSPI | 5,700.83 | +2.72% |
| Brent Crude | $102.91 | +2.69% |
| WTI Crude | $95.77 | +2.43% |
| Gold | $5,043.00 | +0.82% |
| Silver | $82.70 | +2.50% |
| Platinum | $2,160.40 | +3.13% |
| 5-Yr Treasury | 3.803% | −1.83% |
| 10-Yr Treasury | 4.220% | −1.52% |
| 30-Yr Treasury | 4.859% | −1.00% |
| EUR / USD | 1.1500 | −0.09% |
| USD / JPY | 159.21 | +0.11% |
| US Dollar Index | 99.86 | +0.15% |
| Bitcoin | $74,168.57 | +0.47% |
Beyond the lead
Central Banks
Fed meets this week — trapped between inflation and a softening labour market
The Iran war is making rate cuts harder. ING argues the Fed will delay as energy-driven inflation collides with weakening employment data — a stagflationary bind with no clean exit. The New York Times notes higher oil puts the Fed in a bind just as the labour market softens.
ING · New York Times
Geopolitics
Trump's seven-nation Hormuz coalition
The AP reports Trump has asked roughly seven countries to police the Strait of Hormuz. The multilateral framing suggests Washington views it as contested space requiring burden-sharing.
Associated Press
Energy
IEA weighs further SPR release
The IEA is considering additional strategic petroleum reserve releases. Analysts caution that SPR draws offer temporary relief but cannot compensate for sustained Hormuz disruption.
IEA
Strategy
Gold crosses $5,000 for the first time
Gold reached $5,043 as institutional capital treats hard assets as core allocation rather than tactical hedge. J.P. Morgan's haven-first framework points to a structural regime shift.
J.P. Morgan
The Gulf's paradox: revenue surges, diversification strains
Bloomberg reports Gulf economies face their worst slump since the 1990s. The paradox is acute: higher oil prices boost fiscal revenues, but supply chain disruption, Hormuz risk premiums, and regional instability threaten the FDI and tourism flows central to diversification agendas. The UAE is a direct target for Iranian aggression, per CNBC, adding a security dimension to the economic disruption.
The Atlantic Council argues the Gulf emerging from this conflict will be structurally different — with multi-year implications for Vision 2030, UAE industrial policy, and regional capital attraction. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are reviewing investment strategies to offset wartime economic impact. MENA startup funding slowed to $326.6M in February, with Fast Company linking the deceleration to geopolitical uncertainty reshaping VC flows. The core tension: oil revenues surge near-term, but the diversification thesis is complicated by the very windfall it was meant to transcend.
Brent (settle)
$102.91
+2.69% · eased from $105 peak
MENA Feb startup funding
$326.6M
Slowed on geopolitical uncertainty
Gulf economic outlook
Worst since 1990s
Bloomberg · revenue vs diversification
Sovereign portfolios
Under review
KSA · UAE · Qatar reassessing strategies
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The stagflationary trap
The post-2022 consensus — that inflation was beaten, rate cuts were coming, and the only question was pace — is breaking down under the weight of an energy shock. The Iran war has introduced a supply-side inflation impulse categorically different from 2021–2023. Central banks cannot address supply disruptions with rate policy; cutting into an oil shock risks embedding inflation expectations, while holding risks deepening the growth slowdown.
When equities, bonds, gold, and oil all rise simultaneously, you are not in a regime the standard models were built for.
The question for asset allocators is whether portfolio construction adapts to recognise that pre-2026 assumptions about disinflation, rate normalisation, and geopolitical stability have been permanently recalibrated. Capital preservation and inflation hedging have moved from tactical positions to structural imperatives.
When equities, bonds, gold, and oil all rise simultaneously, you are not in a regime the standard models were built for.