An Iran MOU is largely negotiated. Markets re-open Tuesday.

US cash markets are closed today for Memorial Day. The cards below carry the four readings that set the tone into Tuesday’s reopen — the detailed account follows in the section below.

Saturday evening, President Trump told reporters that an agreement with Iran was “largely negotiated” — a 60-day memorandum of understanding under which the Strait of Hormuz would reopen with no tolls, Iran would clear the mines it has deployed, the US would lift its blockade on Iranian ports, and limited sanctions waivers would allow Iran to sell oil while broader nuclear talks continue inside the 60-day window. Iran’s foreign ministry separately said the framework is in “final stage” with “positions becoming closer”. Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir led the technical mediation; the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan, Jordan and Bahrain were all on the Saturday call with Trump and “urged him to take the deal” according to reporting.

The headline has not closed the gap on every issue. Iran disputed Trump’s characterisation of the Strait being under joint or external control, saying the waterway will remain under Iranian sovereignty. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu — on a separate Saturday call — expressed concern about the deal terms, describing it through Israeli sources as “an economic deal that doesn’t address Israel’s security concerns.” Trump himself said in an Axios interview that he was “50/50 on Iran deal or bombs”. Sun-night futures responded to the constructive headlines more than the caveats: Brent ICE July traded $101.20 (−3.6% from Friday’s close); S&P futures slightly firmer in thin Memorial Day trading. The Vault Hormuz indicator stays CLOSED through the weekend — the framework changes the trajectory but not the present state.

Each card below opens with a Spotlight row driving last week’s narrative for that asset class. Toggle the Week ⇄ YTD control above any spotlight to flip the entire card. Note: these are Friday close numbers — Sun-night futures and Asia-open moves are captured in the snapshot above, not in the cards below.

The weekend’s diplomatic headlines re-weight the probability map decisively toward Bull. Bull lifts to 50% (an MOU signature is now the central case), Base 35%, Bear 15%. The binary is whether the framework actually closes — Iran has agreed to walk frameworks back before, Netanyahu is unhappy, and Trump’s own “50/50” remark says the deal can still slip. Each card carries the thesis, the Vault positioning note, and asset-level targets for Friday’s close.

Monday closed for Memorial Day. Tuesday’s reopen will digest whatever happened to the MOU over the weekend. Wednesday brings Dell, HP, Salesforce, Marvell and Nutanix earnings after the close — the second pulse for the AI complex after NVIDIA. Friday’s April PCE inflation print is the data anchor of the week and the first major release Warsh will publicly react to (or not) under the new chair — the policy framing he inherits from Powell stays in place until the 16–17 June FOMC.

The regional theme of the weekend is that the GCC — alongside Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt — visibly drove the diplomatic process that produced the framework Trump described Saturday. The Saturday afternoon call brought together Trump and the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain; “two sources briefed on the call said the leaders urged Trump to take the deal” per Axios reporting. Regional markets are open today (a partial trading day in some venues; full week starts Tuesday in others) and the credit market expressed the diplomatic optimism through Sunday: Qatar 5-year CDS at the tightest of the cycle, UAE 10-year eurobond spreads at multi-week lows, Saudi 5-year CDS through pre-war levels.

For the week, the regional positioning question shifts from “weekend risk” to “what does the equity book look like in a post-deal world”. The Vault house view: maintain the GCC overweight (the diplomatic process is regional sovereignty earned, not just borrowed); rotate sector mix further into banks and developers (the rate-relief trade extends if PCE prints in line Friday); take partial profits on oil-linked equity if Brent breaks below $98 on a deal announcement (positive carry above $100 evaporates). The asymmetric weekend tail is now an Iran walkaway — Netanyahu’s pushback is the most-watched secondary headline. If the framework signs Tue/Wed, the Hormuz indicator flips to REOPENING and regional banks have another 2–3% of upside; if the framework slips beyond Wednesday, the diplomatic premium drains slowly.

Three threads will define how the four-session week plays out: whether the Iran MOU actually signs, how Dell’s Wednesday print sits with NVIDIA’s “beat-not-stretch” reception, and how Friday’s April PCE inflation print lands under the new Fed Chair.