Anthropic, the company behind Claude, has set the terms of its Nasdaq listing as ANT: $70 to $78 a share, valuing it at up to about $1.4 trillion. Read its filing the way analysts are trained to, and the answer is easy. Keep reading, and the numbers start doing things numbers are not supposed to do.
Updated 11 November. Amended filings on 2 and 10 November added third-quarter results, a $70–78 price range and about $901 billion of compute commitments. Every figure below uses the latest filing.
| Nine months to 30 Sep | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2,545 | $33,242 | 13× ?! |
| Compute and infrastructure | 4,381 | 18,808 | |
| Operating loss | (5,224) | (1,260) | |
| Change in fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs | (20,107) | (94,324) | only paper? |
| Net loss | $(25,107) | $(104,039) | walk away |
None of these are exotic. They are the first things anyone who has valued a business learns to check, and Anthropic's own filing fails each one.
In the first nine months of 2026, Anthropic reported a net loss of $104.0 billion. Over the same nine months it brought in $33.2 billion of revenue, which means it lost more than three dollars for every dollar it earned.
Bars drawn to scale.
Anthropic has committed to about $901 billion of spending, substantially all of it on computing power and data centres, and most of it is owed whether or not revenue keeps up. At its September-quarter pace, a full year of revenue comes to about $68 billion, so the commitments add up to more than 13 of those years.
As of and after 30 September 2026. A further $150–175B of arrangements with no fixed dollar amount is not counted.
Anthropic says its five largest customers made up about a quarter of its revenue in the first nine months of 2026. It also warns that many big customers are not on long-term contracts and can cut their spending at any time.
Nine months to 30 September 2026.
Every public share of Anthropic put together will carry at most 49.9% of the vote on general matters. One single share, issued to a company owned by the seven co-founders, carries the other 50.1%.
Until a "sunset" set out in the filing. A trust also elects a majority of the board.
The world's most valuable company on 27 March 2000. Then it lost about 90% of its value.
Listed at $38. Four months later it traded at $17.55.
Priced at $135, closed at $201.80 four days later, and was down to $104.83 by August.
September quarter revenue was $17.0 billion, more than 12 times a year earlier. Growth slowed from 144% to 47% quarter on quarter, and the bar still breaks the chart.
Almost none of it was cash leaving the building. As Anthropic got more valuable, so did the convertible notes it had issued to Amazon, and accounting rules book that rise as a loss. Those paper marks, with other mark-to-market positions, came to $104.6 billion in nine months, more than the entire loss. Take them out, along with stock-based pay and a few other non-cash items, and the company reports adjusted net income of $5.6 billion.
Adjusted net income is the company's own non-GAAP measure. Nine months to 30 September 2026.
At the start of 2025, every dollar of revenue needed $2.51 of computing power behind it. By the June 2026 quarter it needed 48 cents. In September it rose to 58 cents: demand outran Anthropic's own capacity, and it bought $5.0 billion of short-term compute that costs significantly more. The $901 billion is a bet that the line resumes its fall as that capacity comes online.
Compute and infrastructure cost as a share of revenue, by quarter.
A year earlier, about 950 customers were paying Anthropic $100,000 or more a year. By September 2026 it was more than 11,900, with about 1,900 paying over a million and around 250 paying over ten million. Customers who were paying a year ago now pay about nine times as much. And the top five are fading: in the September quarter, 79% of revenue came from everyone else, up from 64% in March.
Even its ten biggest Fortune 500 customers spend less than 1% of their costs on Anthropic. That's either a ceiling or a very long runway.
In September 2026, Claude wrote more than 90% of the code contributions to Anthropic's own codebase. The filing says each Claude model now helps build the next one.
Same company. Same filing.Same nine months.
The four most dangerous words in investing are: this time it's different.Attributed to Sir John Templeton
Both stories are true, and that is the problem. The bear case assumes this curve bends back to normal, because every curve before it did. The bull case assumes it keeps going, because so far it has. Neither side can prove its case, and it is hard to find a clean example of a company this large growing this fast. History can't settle it, but it can show you how these stories tend to end.
It took until December 2025, more than 25 years, to pass its March 2000 price. The internet was real. The price was early.
Back to $38 by August 2013. Ten years after listing, anyone who bought at the IPO had more than quintupled their money.
Back up to $171.09 by early October, then $143.09 on 10 November, a little above its $135 IPO price. Five months in, the jury is still out.
The dot-com crowd was right about the internet and wrong about the price. Being right about AI and making money on ANT may not be the same bet.
The price depends on the story you believe about the next ten years. Aswath Damodaran, the NYU professor often called the dean of valuation, published his the week the filing landed and has trimmed it since. Others ran the same numbers and got a very different answer. The company's own price range sits between them.
Possible? Plausible? Probable?
Damodaran's three questions for any valuation story.
Lines between today and 2036 are drawn for illustration. The 2036 figure is each source's own.
Sources: Damodaran, Musings on Markets, 28 Oct, 3 Nov and 9 Nov 2026. INDmoney, Oct 2026. The $70–78 price range values Anthropic at about $1.26–1.40 trillion fully diluted (FT), or about $1.02 trillion on shares outstanding (Reuters). None of these is Vault's view.
Even the prospectus won't promise how this ends. Among its risk factors, it notes concerns that advanced AI could pose "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity" without proper safeguards. That is not a sentence you find in many listings.
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