Gulf · BRENT TOPS $100
oil: Brent crude jumped 3% on Thursday to top $100 per barrel; the US benchmark rose to $92 per barrel · diplomacy: Iran’s seven-day proposal to reopen the strait was rejected by President Trump, with the US ambassador to the UN describing it as “a pretty cynical attempt” to end the war. Both sides have said they expect contacts to continue; no date has been announced. Accounts are contested · reserves: the US Energy Department’s request for proposals for an exchange of up to 40 million barrels closes on Tuesday 6 October, with deliveries scheduled for November and December · still unresolved: the strait remains closed to normal commercial traffic and the Salalah ministerial has no new date
As of Fri 2 Oct 2026, 07:00 GST
The four things Friday is opening on.
5.3338%
US 10-Yr
highest since April 2002
5.6702%
US 30-Yr
highest since July 2002
197,000
Jobless claims
from a revised 198,000
+3%
Brent
tops $100 again
We asked why yields ignored good inflation news. Here is an answer.
In yesterday’s edition we offered two candidate explanations for the bond market’s indifference to a softer inflation print, and declined to choose between them. One was that August data is too old to inform the autumn. The other was that the level of yields is being set by the expected path of policy rather than by incoming numbers. Thursday points toward a third thing that supports the second: the labour market is not cooperating with the case for lower rates. A claims figure of 197,000, with a four-week average that has fallen to 200,000, describes an economy in which very few people are losing their jobs. That makes it considerably harder for a committee in which sixteen of eighteen participants already expect to raise rates again to be argued out of it by one good inflation report. Add crude back above $100 on Brent and the arithmetic is unchanged from where it has been all month: the inflation data is improving, and the conditions that would make it keep improving are not.
The long end made a 24-year high.
- Both benchmarks reset. The 10-year to 5.3338% and the 30-year to 5.6702%, the highest since April and July 2002 respectively.
- Claims kept falling. 197,000 on the week, with the four-week average down to 200,000.
- Equities held. Both main indices closed higher, if barely.
Equity figures are Thursday 1 Oct’s close. Every figure shown is one a named source states directly, and commodity levels are reported exactly as quoted by their source. Single names appear as news, not recommendations. Times GST.
5.3338%
US 10-Yr
+4bp
5.6702%
US 30-Yr
+3bp
197,000
Claims
4-week avg 200,000
+3%
Brent
tops $100
A fourth consecutive session higher, and a level not seen in 24 years. The 30-year moved with it to 5.6702%, its highest since July 2002. Neither was deterred by Wednesday’s softer inflation report.
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Each level as reported for its date; the 10-year readings are drawn from the daily reporting of each session.
The four-week average, which smooths weekly noise, fell by 2,500 to 200,000. Very few Americans are losing their jobs, and that is the hardest fact for anyone arguing the Federal Reserve should stop.
Show the dataHide the data
US weekly unemployment claims as reported for the week to 1 October.
A three per cent jump returned the international benchmark above the hundred-dollar mark, with the US benchmark at $92. The strait remains closed to normal commercial traffic and the diplomatic track has no date attached to it.
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Levels exactly as quoted by their source for 1 October; no inter-benchmark spread is computed here.
Both main indices finished higher on a session that produced 24-year highs in the bond market. It is the same composure that carried the third quarter to a 2% gain, and it continues to be the most underestimated feature of this market.
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Thursday 1 Oct close; quarter figures to 30 Sep. Indices shown as news.
Four sessions, four steps higher.
US 10-year Treasury yield, this week · through Thu 1 Oct
A climb that survived a soft inflation print.
Monday 5.24%, Tuesday 5.25%, Wednesday 5.29%, Thursday 5.3338% — and Wednesday was the day PCE came in three tenths below forecast on both measures.
Vault Wealth illustration. Each daily level as reported for its date. The vertical axis is truncated and begins at 5.20%, which exaggerates the apparent size of the move; it is shown this way because a zero-based axis would make the four readings indistinguishable.
Three headlines shaping today.
Rates
Highest since 2002
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose four basis points to 5.3338%, its highest since April 2002.
- The 30-year rose three basis points to 5.6702%, its highest since July 2002.
Reported yields · 1 Oct
Labour
Claims at 197,000
- Initial jobless claims ticked down to 197,000 from a revised 198,000 the week before.
- The four-week average fell by 2,500 to 200,000.
Washington Times · US DOL · 1 Oct
Oil
Brent tops $100
- Brent crude jumped 3% on Thursday to top $100 per barrel.
- The US benchmark rose to $92 per barrel.
Reported prices · 1 Oct
Above a hundred again, and the week’s real cost is elsewhere.
Brent returned above $100 on Thursday with a 3% jump, and the US benchmark reached $92. The underlying position has not changed: the strait remains closed to normal commercial traffic, Iran’s seven-day proposal has been rejected, and the Salalah ministerial that would bring Iran and the six GCC states together still has no date. Cargoes continue to move through the repaired East–West pipeline and through offshore transfers, and the US Energy Department’s request for proposals for an exchange of up to 40 million barrels closes on Tuesday, with deliveries scheduled for November and December.
But the more consequential number for the region this week was not the oil price. It was the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.3338%, a level last seen in April 2002, reached on a day when American jobless claims fell to 197,000. For economies whose currencies are pegged to the dollar, that is imported monetary policy, and it is being driven by an American labour market rather than by anything happening in the Gulf. A resolution at the strait, whenever it comes, would do a great deal for regional energy revenues and very little for the cost of borrowing.
Vault Wealth’s read
This section sets out how we are interpreting events. It is commentary, not guidance, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.
- 01Yesterday’s question has a partial answer. We asked why a soft inflation print left the long end unmoved and said we could not tell. A claims figure of 197,000 with a four-week average of 200,000 is at least part of it: the labour market is not producing a reason to stop.
- 02Two risks, two drivers. The oil price is a Gulf story and the yield is an American one. They have been moving together often enough this autumn to look like a single trade, and this week showed they are not.
- 03Equity composure, again. Both indices closed higher on a day the bond market made 24-year highs. We have spent several weeks noting that this market absorbs more than we expect it to, and Thursday is another instance rather than an exception.
- 04What would genuinely change the picture. A sustained fall in the long end of the US curve, normal commercial transit through the strait, or a verified ceasefire. None of those happened this week.
How any of this bears on an individual portfolio depends on circumstances we cannot see from here — time horizon, currency exposure, liquidity needs and existing holdings among them. That conversation belongs with a licensed advisor, and we would encourage clients with questions about the themes above to have it.
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