A diplomatic opening — and a jobs-report week.

The market comes in steadier. Last week ended a two-week losing streak with the S&P up about 1% and the Nasdaq 1.6%, despite a violent path: a hawkish, divided 9–3 Fed hold drove the worst broad-market day since April 2025 midweek, before Microsoft’s record one-day value gain and Amazon’s 15% surge on 37% cloud growth powered the rebound. Apple was the exception, off 7% on a soft guide. The takeaway is the one that has held all year: the AI build-out is monetising, and earnings have again trumped the macro. Soft Q2 GDP (1.5%) and in-line core PCE (3.3%) helped by easing the sting of the Fed’s hawkish turn.

On the Gulf, a genuine diplomatic opening. President Trump agreed to give diplomacy a chance to reach an agreement to end the war and restore free navigation through the strait, a move Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister publicly welcomed, and mediators’ proposal for a ceasefire is on the table. The caveats are real — no deal is signed, the strait is still disrupted, and the US Treasury separately wound down an authorization tied to Iranian oil — but the direction has shifted from escalation toward negotiation, and oil sits well off its ~$102 peak. The week ahead now hinges less on the war and more on the macro: a jobs report, ISM surveys and an earnings tail that tests whether the megacap strength broadens out.

• The megacaps led the recovery — Microsoft’s record day and Amazon’s cloud surge snapped the two-week decline.
• The Fed was the shock — a hawkish 9–3 hold sent yields up midweek before soft data eased the fear.
• Oil eased, gold held — crude fell from its ~$102 peak as diplomacy gained a foothold; gold stayed near records.

Tap Week or YTD on each card. Week = 27–31 Jul; YTD figures approximate. Single names appear as news, not recommendations. Times GST.

After a month that ran from ceasefire to $102 oil and back, the weekend brought the most constructive signal in weeks. President Trump agreed to give diplomacy a chance to reach an agreement to end the war and restore free navigation through the strait, and Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister publicly welcomed the move; mediators’ proposal for a ceasefire remains on the table. It is an opening, not a resolution: no deal is signed, the strait is still heavily disrupted, and the US Treasury separately wound down an authorization tied to Iranian oil — a reminder that pressure and diplomacy are running in parallel. For the Gulf, a durable agreement would be a material positive, easing freight, insurance and confidence and taking crude further off its highs; the risk is that the talks stall, as they have before, and the premium returns.

Vault Wealth’s house view: the diplomatic opening improves the balance of risks, and our regime gauge has climbed back to neutral — but we wait for confirmation before adding materially to risk. We hold a balanced book with lighter energy and gold hedges, and would trim them further on a signed ceasefire or oil holding below $85; a breakdown in the talks, or oil back toward $95, would send us defensive again.