The hawks win the week.

The week was a genuine round trip that ended where the hawks wanted it. It opened with the Gulf conflict escalating — two tankers struck while exiting Hormuz sent Brent above $95 and pushed Treasury yields to multi-decade highs. Midweek the mood flipped: ADP’s soft hiring print and then Governor Waller’s remark that a hike would not be warranted if underlying inflation slows drove the best session in a month. And then Friday’s payrolls ended the argument. At 162,000, nearly three times the forecast, with unemployment steady and wages firm, it removed the doves’ best card — it is hard to argue the labour market needs protecting when it is adding jobs at that pace. With oil near $95 keeping the cost-push case alive, the hawks now hold both halves of their argument going into 16 September. The indexes finished the week barely changed, which rather understates how much the outlook shifted beneath them.

• The indexes went nowhere — a violent round trip that netted out to almost no change on the week.
• The rate outlook moved a lot — hike odds for September rose to roughly 58% after the jobs beat.
• Oil stayed the wildcard — Brent near $95 all week after the tanker strikes, underpinning the inflation case.

Figures are the week to Friday 4 Sep’s US close; weekly index moves are approximate; rates, FX and commodity levels are the latest available. Single names appear as news, not recommendations. Times GST.

The defining regional event of the week came early: two oil tankers struck while attempting to exit the Strait of Hormuz, following the exchange of fire between the US and Iran over the previous weekend. Reports on the attacks remain contested and the situation is fast-moving, so the established facts are what matter — commercial vessels were hit, and Brent moved above $95. What is notable is what happened next: nothing. The premium did not fade. Crude held near $95 for the rest of the week, through a dovish Fed comment and a hot jobs report alike, because the market has no basis for assuming the shipping lanes are safe. That persistence is the real cost of this conflict. It is no longer a series of price spikes that decay; it is a standing tax on the global economy, and one that now feeds directly into the argument over whether the Fed raises rates in eleven days. For the Gulf, the export recovery of August looks increasingly like it needed a calm that has not held.

Vault Wealth’s house view: Friday’s jobs report resolved the question we had been waiting on, and not in the direction we hoped. We said a soft print with stabilising oil would let us begin easing our defensive stance; instead we got a hot print with oil stuck near $95. So the energy and gold hedge stays on, and we add no equity risk into a meeting that is now more likely than not to deliver a hike. We stay balanced and liquid. August CPI in the coming week is the last real swing factor before 16 September — a soft reading could still change the calculus, and we will act on it if it comes. Until then, patience remains the position.