It all hinges on Wednesday's CPI.

The market arrives on a high. Last week was Wall Street’s best since April, the S&P up about 3% and the Nasdaq 4%, in a run that combined records early — on de-escalation, a strong ISM and an AI-earnings surge led by Palantir — with a rally to finish that was sparked, improbably, by a weak jobs report. Payrolls fell 23,000 in July, the first drop in months, yet stocks climbed because a softening labour market shifts the Fed from the hikes it flagged a fortnight ago toward cuts. It is a striking reversal of mood, and it leaves the market priced for a dovish Fed just as the week’s inflation data arrives.

On the Gulf, genuine progress with clear limits. Iran said its deal with Oman on a Hormuz traffic scheme is “close” and would include a commitment not to fire at commercial vessels — but its own officials caution the agreement would not fully reopen the strait, Iran is demanding concessions from Washington, and it has dismissed President Trump’s ceasefire claims as “false and baseless.” So the direction remains constructive — oil is in the low-$80s, well off its peak — without a clean resolution. The week ahead now turns on data more than diplomacy: a July CPI print that will either validate the rally’s dovish premise or challenge it, with PPI and retail sales to follow.

• The best week since April — records early on AI earnings, then a rally on the weak jobs report and rate-cut hopes.
• The Fed narrative flipped — from hikes a fortnight ago to cuts now, pulling Treasury yields lower.
• Oil fell on the Gulf deal — the Iran-Oman agreement-in-principle sent crude down double digits early in the week.

Tap Week or YTD on each card. Week = 3–7 Aug; YTD figures approximate. Single names appear as news, not recommendations. Times GST.

The de-escalation continued to firm over the weekend, without crossing the line to resolution. Iran said its deal with Oman on a Hormuz traffic scheme is “close” and would carry a commitment not to fire at commercial vessels — a meaningful safeguard if honoured. But Iran also set the boundaries clearly: the agreement, its officials say, would not fully reopen the strait on its own; Tehran is demanding concessions from Washington; and it has dismissed President Trump’s ceasefire claims as “false and baseless.” The US, for its part, says it wants to maximise the oil and gas flowing through the strait. So the two sides are closer, but negotiating hard, and the full reopening — and the wider deal to end the war it is tied to — remains uncertain. Oil in the low-$80s reflects that balance: much of the war premium is out, but not all, because the outcome is not yet settled.

Vault Wealth’s house view: the trajectory supports our constructive stance and we have lightened hedges as oil has fallen, but we keep a residual energy and gold position until an agreement is signed and, crucially, the US-Iran track moves with it. A finalised, workable reopening with traffic recovering would let us go further into risk; a breakdown in the talks, or the US rejecting Iran’s terms outright, would send us defensive again.