Hormuz · WARTIME HIGH
attacks: CNBC reported on 9 October that eleven tankers came under attack while transiting Hormuz in the week ended 4 October — the most strikes on commercial ships since the war began in late February — with another five this week. CNN put the same week at ten on 8 October; we report both as stated · flows: 8.5 million barrels a day for the week ended Wednesday, about 40% below normal pre-war levels, according to Kpler data cited by CNBC on 9 October · beyond the strait: Euronews reported on 8 October that two commercial tankers were struck outside the strait within 24 hours: the Acers, 51 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal in Qatar on Wednesday, and a fire on a tanker some 40km off Fujairah · transits: seven tankers transited on Tuesday, the fewest since 23 July, per The National on 8 October · Washington: on 8 October President Trump said the United States “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections” on 3 November, adding the administration is “having productive discussions” with Tehran
As of Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:00 GST
What the week actually did.
11
Tankers attacked
wk to 4 Oct · most since Feb
8.5m
Hormuz flows
b/d · ~40% below pre-war
$104.72
Brent, Friday
about +2% on the week
+0.95%
S&P 500, week
per TheStreet
Two Gulfs, one oil price.
The simplest way to read the week is that two separate supply stories ran at once and largely cancelled out in the price. One is a war: Kpler data cited by CNBC on Friday put flows through Hormuz at 8.5 million barrels a day for the week ended Wednesday, about 40% below normal pre-war levels, and the week before that the same dataset had them at 9.5 million, about 30% below. The other is weather, and it will pass. What held equities up through both was a rates picture that improved at the margin: the 30-year auction on Wednesday cleared at 5.618%, the highest since August 2000, and still drew bids of 2.54 times the amount on offer, which is a market finding buyers rather than losing them. The week’s most abrupt single move had nothing to do with either Gulf — it was Thursday’s fall in AI-linked shares after the Financial Times reported that OpenAI had told investors its annualised revenue was nearing $50 billion, against a $70 billion figure previously reported.
A higher week, with a hard middle.
- Records on Tuesday, a drop on Thursday, a rally on Friday — and a net gain for the two large-cap indices.
- The long end set a 2002 high mid-week before Wednesday’s auction drew solid demand.
- Crude climbed on two unrelated supply shocks and eased only slightly into the weekend.
US markets are closed Saturday. Figures are Friday 9 Oct’s close and weekly changes as reported by the named outlet, with the date that outlet published them. Where outlets differ on the same figure we show the discrepancy rather than resolving it. Index moves are percentages, never levels. Single names appear as news or calendar items, not recommendations. Times GST.
+0.95%
S&P 500, wk
TheStreet, 9 Oct
+0.19%
Nasdaq, wk
TheStreet, 9 Oct
$104.72
Brent, Fri
+44c
$91.85
US crude, Fri
+36c
A week containing two record closes and a sharp tech-led fall still finished green for the large caps. The small-cap index did not follow, which is the one divergence worth carrying into next week.
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Weekly and Friday figures as stated by TheStreet on 9 October. Other outlets published different weekly figures for the same period — around +1.15% for the S&P and +0.64% for the Nasdaq. We report one source’s set and flag the difference rather than averaging them.
US crude settled at $91.85, up 36 cents. Reuters reported that Gulf of Mexico producers shut in roughly 72% of crude output as Hurricane Isaias approached, with about 1.3 million barrels a day already offline as of Thursday per the US Marine Minerals Administration.
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Settles and storm figures per Reuters, 9 October. The gap is the difference between the two Friday settles, described approximately and labelled as derived; we do not compute weekly changes ourselves and quote the one the source states.
Bids came in at 2.54 times the amount on offer, with indirect bidders taking 72.3% against a ten-auction average of 68%. The 30-year yield had reached its highest since 2002 earlier in the week; by Friday afternoon it was quoted at 5.608%.
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Friday’s yields are intraday levels timestamped 1:35pm EDT by TheStreet, not settles. Auction detail per Bloomberg and the published results, 8 October.
Most participants assessed another increase would likely be appropriate by year end, with none projected for 2027 and no indication of timing. Governor Waller said on Thursday that the hikes “do not need to come at consecutive meetings,” adding there was flexibility on pace.
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Minutes of the September meeting as reported by CNBC on 7 October. Governor Waller spoke on 8 October at a Central Bank of Turkey forum in Istanbul.
Two weeks, two shortfalls.
Hormuz flows, as reported by Kpler · cited 9 Oct
From about 30% below pre-war to about 40%.
Each column is dated to the week it describes, because a flows figure is only true of its own week.
Vault Wealth illustration. Both volume figures and both shortfall percentages are as stated by Kpler data cited in reporting published 8 and 9 October 2026, each for the week indicated. No value here is calculated by us.
Three things booked in.
Inflation
US CPI, 12–16 October
- Consensus compiled by Newsquawk: headline 3.6% year on year against 3.4% previously; core 2.5% against 2.4%.
- PPI and retail sales land in the same window.
Newsquawk week-in-focus · 9 Oct · expectations, not outcomes
Earnings
The banks open the season
- JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are scheduled for Tuesday; Morgan Stanley and Bank of America for Wednesday.
- Analysts expect S&P 500 third-quarter earnings growth of 29.5% year on year.
CNBC · 9 Oct · calendar items, not recommendations
Energy
Two supply stories to resolve
- Whether Hormuz transits recover from seven on Tuesday, the fewest since 23 July.
- Whether shut-in Gulf of Mexico output returns once Hurricane Isaias passes.
The National 8 Oct · Reuters 9 Oct
The campaign moved outside the strait.
The development most relevant to readers in this region is not the flows number but where the attacks happened. Euronews reported on 8 October that Iran struck two commercial tankers outside the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours: several projectiles hit the oil and chemical tanker Acers, flagged in Antigua and Barbuda, 51 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal in Qatar on Wednesday, and a fire was reported on a tanker some 40 kilometres off Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman. Both locations sit outside the chokepoint itself. CNBC reported on 9 October that eleven tankers came under attack while transiting Hormuz in the week ended 4 October, the most since the war began in late February, with another five this week and twelve sailors injured on Monday when a projectile struck a tanker in transit. We note that CNN reported ten attacks for that same week on 8 October; the counts differ by outlet and we have not attempted to reconcile them.
Set against that, President Trump said on 8 October that the United States “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd,” adding that the administration is “having productive discussions” with Tehran. The same week also saw Yemen’s Houthis say they had targeted Riyadh’s airport for a third time, along with an airport in Najran and an airbase in Khamis Mushait, with a Saudi-led coalition saying it intercepted missiles from an earlier attack.
Vault Wealth’s read
This section sets out how we are interpreting the week’s reporting. It is commentary, not guidance, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.
- 01Geography is the new information. Attacks at Fujairah and north of Qatar are a different fact from attacks inside the strait, because the chokepoint is the part everyone already prices.
- 02The two Gulfs are temporarily confusable. Some of this week’s crude strength came from a hurricane that will pass within days. Separating the weather from the war is the first thing to do with next week’s price action.
- 03The dated pause and the deteriorating data are both real. A declared four-week timetable from Washington and a flows series going from about 30% to about 40% below pre-war are not in conflict; they describe different actors.
- 04Next week’s regional variable is American. CPI lands in the 12–16 October window, and dollar-pegged economies here import that outcome regardless of what happens at sea.
How any of this bears on an individual portfolio depends on circumstances we cannot see from here — time horizon, currency exposure, liquidity needs and existing holdings among them. That conversation belongs with a licensed advisor, and we would encourage clients with questions about the themes above to have it.
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