The banks warned about today’s number.

The useful thing about bank results at this point in a cycle is that they are a read on the economy rather than on the banks. Citi’s detail is the most legible: higher revenue from investment banking and wealth management, with credit card division profits flat. That is a picture of capital markets doing well and the consumer doing neither well nor badly, which is roughly what a 4.2% unemployment rate and a 29,000 payrolls print would lead you to expect. The warning the four share points directly at this morning’s release. September CPI arrives at 08:30 Eastern, two weeks before the FOMC meeting, with consensus looking for headline inflation of about 3.6% year on year against 3.4% previously and core around 2.5%. We are publishing before it lands, so nothing on this page tells you what it said. What we can say is that the bond market spent Tuesday pricing a slightly gentler path — the 10-year fell more than five basis points to 5.1937% and the 30-year four to 5.5580% — after the New York Fed’s John Williams said he still sees one more increase as appropriate this year but does not currently think another will be needed in 2027.

• Yields fell across the curve on the bond market’s first session since Friday.
• Equities finished effectively unchanged despite a full morning of bank results.
• Crude split — Brent settled lower, US crude higher.

Figures are Tuesday 13 Oct’s US close. Every number here is one a named source states directly, with the date of that reporting. September CPI had not been released when this edition was built; consensus figures appear as expectations only. Index moves are percentages, not levels. Company results are reported as news, not recommendations. Times GST.

The geographic point we flagged last week has continued. Marine Insight and Indian news agencies reported that MT Petro Dolphin was struck by a drone on 11 October at Sohar Anchorage — that is inside Omani waters, well outside the Strait of Hormuz itself. Eleven Indian seafarers were aboard; two were reported missing and nine rescued, with search operations under way. The same reporting carried a second vessel, the Marshall Islands-flagged MT Valthera, struck by an unknown projectile which caused a fire, with all eleven aboard reported safe. Twenty-two Indian nationals were on the two ships between them, and India’s Ministry of External Affairs condemned both attacks and called for de-escalation.

On land, the Saudi position hardened. The coalition spokesman Turki al-Maliki described the 10 October attack on King Khalid International Airport as a “full-fledged war crime” and said it caused deaths and injuries among civilian passengers and airport staff; Saudi Arabia said it would “respond decisively”. The Houthi spokesman al-Bukhaiti said the attacks were retaliation for Saudi strikes on civilian infrastructure in Yemen. We report both statements as the claims of the parties making them. Saudi media report that airport operations have resumed and air traffic has returned to normal.

Vault Wealth’s read

This section sets out how we are interpreting events. It is commentary, not guidance, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.

1. 01An anchorage is not a chokepoint. A vessel struck at anchor in Omani waters is a different risk from one struck in transit, because it removes the assumption that avoiding the strait avoids the danger.
2. 02The crews remain the constant. Twenty-two Indian nationals on these two ships, twelve injured on a UAE-owned vessel last week, and eight nationalities among the airport dead. This is a regional employment story as much as an energy one.
3. 03Equities have now ignored two days of this. Index moves of 0.06% and 0.02% through an airport attack, a tanker campaign reaching Oman and the opening of earnings season say the equity market is pricing none of it directly.
4. 04Today’s number still outranks all of it for portfolios here. CPI at 08:30 Eastern, two weeks before the FOMC, is what the December question turns on, and dollar-pegged economies import that answer.

How any of this bears on an individual portfolio depends on circumstances we cannot see from here — time horizon, currency exposure, liquidity needs and existing holdings among them. That conversation belongs with a licensed advisor, and we would encourage clients with questions about the themes above to have it.