The biggest week of the summer.

Two threads set up the week. First, the market: last week flipped for a second time. Two soft data points — a flash PMI at an eight-month high and a steady ECB — said the economy is fine, yet the S&P still fell about 0.6% and the Nasdaq 2.1%, because the megacap earnings finally attached a number to the AI build-out. Alphabet dropped 7% despite 82% cloud growth, sold on the scale of its capital spending; Tesla fell 14%; Intel’s beat was the lone bright spot. This is a re-rating of how much the market will pay for AI, not a verdict on growth — and it now faces its real test, with Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple all reporting.

Second, the Gulf, which ran on two tracks. US Central Command said it launched about 140 strikes over the weekend — the largest package of the conflict — and President Trump threatened to answer any attack on shipping with strikes on Iranian infrastructure, while Iran said the strait would “never return” to pre-war conditions. Yet in parallel, Oman drafted a proposal to route traffic through two separately controlled channels, and talks continued; the sticking point is tolls, which Iran wants and Oman and the US reject. Oil captured the tension, peaking near $102 before easing to ~$97. The week ahead now stacks a Fed decision, four megacap reports and fresh growth and inflation data on top of a live war — an unusually dense set of catalysts.

• Megacaps led the loss — the AI leaders that drove the year’s gains drove the weekly decline as capex came into focus.
• The economy reassured — an eight-month-high PMI and a steady ECB showed activity is holding up.
• Energy and gold led — oil’s spike toward $102 lifted energy, and gold pushed to record ground.

Tap Week or YTD on each card. Week = 20–24 Jul; YTD figures approximate. Single names appear as news, not recommendations. Times GST.

The region enters the week on two tracks at once. On the military side, the sharpest escalation yet: US Central Command said it launched about 140 strikes over the weekend — the largest package of the conflict — President Trump threatened to answer any attack on shipping with strikes on Iranian bridges and power plants, and Iran said the strait “will never return” to pre-war conditions. On the diplomatic side, a genuine effort: Oman, a long-standing manager of the strait alongside Iran, has drafted a proposal to route traffic through two separately controlled channels. The obstacle is money — Iran wants access charges, which Oman opposes and the US calls unacceptable — and Washington says talks cannot progress until ships have assured safe passage. Oil sits near $97 after peaking around $102, with traffic down to roughly 25 ships a day. Both tracks are live; verified transit data and the fate of the Omani proposal are what to watch.

Vault Wealth’s house view: we hold the more defensive tilt adopted as Brent cleared $90 — trimmed risk, energy and gold hedges retained, and selective GCC exposure where higher crude supports fundamentals. Credible progress on the Omani track, or a sustained retreat below $90, would be the trigger to add risk back; a return toward $100 or strikes on Gulf infrastructure would argue for more caution.