Two tracks, and a hedge restored.

There is an apparent contradiction in the weekend’s reporting that is worth resolving, because it is the key to the whole picture. One set of stories says regional oil flows have been increasing; another says shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed dramatically. Both are correct. The East–West pipeline is running again, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman continue to move cargoes without sending tankers into the Arabian Gulf. Those are the overland and offshore routes, and they are working. The strait itself is reported to be quieter. That is precisely why Gulf crude trades nearly thirteen dollars above American crude while the world is not short of oil. And it is why we are restoring part of a hedge we reduced a week ago. We wrote on 22 September that we would reverse if the eighty-per-cent figure proved to be a peak rather than a trajectory. We would have preferred not to be tested on that so quickly, which is rather the point of writing it down in advance.

• The 10-year reached 5.24% — up six basis points, its highest since 2007, with the 30-year at 5.56%.
• Crude held its premium — Brent settling at $105.28 against US crude at $92.60.
• Equities gave up ground — the Nasdaq down 0.92% after last week’s gain.

Equity figures are Monday 28 Sep’s close; rate and commodity levels are the latest available and approximate. Every figure shown is one a named source states directly. Single names appear as news, not recommendations. Times GST.

Readers in the Gulf have had a confusing weekend of headlines, and it is worth untangling because both versions are right. Regional oil flows have indeed been recovering: the East–West pipeline is running again after its repair, and Saudi Arabia’s ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman continue to load cargoes without requiring buyers’ tankers to enter the Arabian Gulf at all. At the same time, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is reported to have slowed, though we have seen no named source putting a figure to it and will not supply one. The region is exporting through the back doors while the front door quietens. For anyone whose business depends on the waterway itself — shipping lines, insurers, port operators, and the considerable UAE economy built around transhipment — the waterway is what bites, regardless of how much crude is reaching buyers by other means.

The diplomatic backdrop hardened alongside it. The US ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, described Iran’s seven-day proposal as “a pretty cynical attempt” to end the war, noting that Tehran had asked for sanctions relief and access to frozen assets simply to begin talking. Iran, for its part, claims its strikes on shipping including US Navy vessels have pushed American warships further from its coast — a claim we report as a claim, since it is contested and unverified. Foreign Minister Araghchi says Tehran remains open to diplomacy and equally prepared for confrontation. Both sides continue to say they expect to meet.

Vault Wealth’s house view — a change: we are partially restoring the energy leg of the hedge we began reducing on 22 September. The reasoning is the same reasoning we published then, applied in the opposite direction. We reduced because flows had recovered to roughly four-fifths of pre-war levels, and we wrote down the condition that would reverse it: evidence that the figure was a peak rather than a trajectory. Reported slowing through the strait is that evidence, and we would rather act on it promptly than spend a week explaining why our own test did not really count. We are restoring part, not all — the overland and offshore routes are genuinely working, and that is a durable improvement on the position in mid-September. Gold and the rate-side protection are unchanged, and on rates we note without satisfaction that the 10-year at 5.24% is a single basis point from our bear threshold on the first day of the week. Balanced, liquid, hedged — and willing to be seen changing our minds in public when the evidence changes.