Nvidia lifts, Warsh caps.

For a fortnight we had been watching three things — oil, AI earnings and the Fed — and this week gave a verdict on all three. Two came in constructive. Oil eased below $90 for a second week, helped by real supply improvement as Hormuz flows recovered, and Nvidia’s blowout put to rest the fear that the AI earnings engine was faltering. But the third, and arguably the most important, turned the other way. Kevin Warsh used his debut as Chair to make clear the inflation fight is not over: recent data have cooled “a bit,” he said, but not enough to convince him the trend has improved, and rate hikes may be needed. A market that had been leaning toward a hold, or even a cut, suddenly faced 57% odds of a September hike. The net was still a positive week, carried by Nvidia, but the balance of risk shifted — and it now rests on one number. Friday’s August jobs report will do more than any speech to settle whether the Fed hikes on 16 September.

1. 01

   The market rebounded from the prior week's slide, all three indexes finishing less than 1% higher after a midweek surge.

2. 02

   Nvidia was the engine: its blowout quarter and strong guidance drove the best session since early August and revived the AI leaders after a bruising fortnight.

3. 03

   But the rally was narrow — technology was the only S&P sector to advance — an AI relief bounce rather than a broad re-rating.

4. 04

   Then new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh capped it, saying inflation is still too high and hikes may be needed, sending September hike odds to 57% and stocks lower on Friday.

5. 05

   Oil was the quiet constructive thread, Brent easing below $90 as Gulf exports recovered toward two-thirds of pre-war levels; next week's jobs report decides the September call.

• Nvidia carried the rebound — its blowout drove the best day since early August, though breadth stayed thin.
• Warsh reset the Fed read — a hawkish debut pushed September hike odds to 57% and capped the week.
• Oil and Gulf supply improved — Brent held below $90 as exports recovered toward two-thirds of pre-war levels.

Tap Week or YTD on each card. Week = 24–28 Aug; YTD figures approximate. Single names appear as news, not recommendations.

The modal base case — a range-bound week — proved closest, and the bear deserves real credit for flagging the hawkish Warsh, the single most important and least consensual call of the week. What none of the three fully captured was Nvidia. An idiosyncratic earnings blowout overrode a genuinely hawkish macro backdrop and kept the week green — a reminder that a single company can, for a week, matter more than the Fed. We carry that humility into a week where the roles reverse: this time the macro, in the shape of the jobs report, has the last word.

The most encouraging Gulf news in months came on the supply side. Goldman Sachs estimates that oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels as flows through the Strait of Hormuz increase — roughly 15 to 16 million barrels a day, still some 7 to 8 million below the pre-conflict norm, but a clear, measurable improvement. Alongside it, Iran and Oman agreed a revenue-sharing framework for the strait, though Tehran was careful to say it does not amount to an immediate reopening. The caveats remain real: the April ceasefire and June memorandum of understanding both broke down when conflict resumed in July, so a framework is not a settlement, and Washington’s sanctions campaign continues in parallel. But after months in which the story was only about disruption, the direction has turned — and Brent, easing toward $88, reflects it. For the Gulf, a partial normalisation of flows is materially better than the near-blockade of the spring, even if full reopening remains some way off.

Vault Wealth’s house view: the oil and supply picture has clearly improved, and we lean a little less defensively for it — but the week’s bigger change was the Fed, not the Gulf. Warsh’s hawkish turn and a 57% chance of a September hike mean the rate risk is now to the upside, so we keep the energy and gold hedge and do not chase the equity rebound. The improved geopolitics buys us room to be patient rather than defensive; the hawkish Fed keeps us from adding risk. Friday’s jobs report is the hinge: a soft print would let us re-engage into the autumn, a hot one would vindicate holding. Balanced and liquid into the data.