01·The Lead
Democrats win both chambers.
Several races were still being counted on Wednesday, so final seat totals may change.
- Senate: Democrats hold 54 seats after flipping seven, including Texas, Ohio and Maine, Al Jazeera reported.
- House: AP called the chamber for Democrats after they crossed the 218 seats needed for a majority.
- When: the new Senate majority takes control on 3 January.
- The White House: Trump conceded the Iran war contributed to his party’s losses, Reuters reported.
- Vance: the vice president wrote on social media, “The reason we lost is the war,” CNBC reported.
02·Market Reactions
Stocks rally, oil slides.
- Oil: Brent fell 8.7%; CNBC reported that the new majority in Congress has leverage to press Trump to end the war.
- Lipow: Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates said Trump “might now be inclined to make a deal”.
- McNally: Rapidan Energy’s Bob McNally said escalation remains more likely.
- Trump Media: shares of Trump Media & Technology Group dropped 24.5%, AP reported.
Wednesday 4 November closes; Brent is the January contract.
16.61
VIX
−20.26%
+1.58%
Russell 2000
Wednesday
5.28%
US 30-Yr
−4.2bp
$52.12
Silver
+5.11%
Equities
| S&P 500 | +1.58% | |
| Nasdaq Composite | +1.44% | |
| Stoxx 600 | +1.82% | |
| FTSE 100 | +1.79% | |
| DAX | +2.22% | |
| Nikkei 225 | −0.44% | |
| TASI (Saudi) | +1.65% | |
| ADX (Abu Dhabi) | −0.02% | |
| DFM (Dubai) | +3.96% |
Commodities
| Brent (Jan) | $94.62 | −8.67% |
| WTI (Dec) | $88.12 | −8.29% |
| Gold (Dec) | $4,073.00 | +3.37% |
Rates
| US 10-Yr | 4.89% | −5.8bp |
FX
| EUR/USD | 1.1259 | 0.00% |
Digital Assets
| Bitcoin | $80,480 | +5.78% |
03·Chart of the Day
Hospitals up, defence down.
US stocks · share prices · close Wed 4 Nov
Six stocks, one session.
Change in Wednesday’s regular session, %.
HCA Healthcare+10.34%
Dollar Tree+9.64%
Dollar General+8.52%
First Solar+4.63%
ExxonMobil−4.62%
Lockheed Martin−6.88%
Source: Yahoo Finance closing prices; AP, Wednesday 4 Nov.
04·What Else Matters
Iran, chips and Europe.
Iran
Open to a settlement
- Trump: told the Financial Times on Tuesday he had no immediate plans to strike Iran, CNBC reported.
- Diplomacy: senior US and Iranian officials have signalled openness to a settlement, CNBC reported.
CNBC · 4 Nov
Asia
Chipmakers slide
- Seoul: the Kospi was down 3.9% at about 07:00 GST; AP reported that selling of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix drove the fall.
- Tokyo: Tokyo Electron dropped 7.7% and Advantest 9.4% in morning trade.
AP · 5 Nov; Yahoo Finance · 5 Nov
Europe
October inflation
- Euro zone: inflation rose to 4% in October, a three-year high, a flash estimate showed.
- Rate bets: markets put the odds of a December European Central Bank rate hike above 72%, CNBC reported.
CNBC · 4 Nov
05·MENA Focus
Dubai leads, Emaar bids.
- Dubai: the index led Gulf gains, with Emirates NBD up 6.1% and Emaar Properties up 4.4%, Reuters reported.
- Emaar offer: Emaar is offering AED 15 a share in cash for the Emaar Development shares it does not already own, Reuters reported.
- Saudi Arabia: Al Rajhi Bank rose 2.2%.
- Qatar: the index rose 2.8%, with Qatar National Bank up 5.3%.
- UAE economy: the non-oil PMI, a survey where above 50 means growth, eased to 54.8 in October, The National reported.
- Prices: firms raised selling prices at a record pace.
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