Nvidia clears the bar — inflation doesn’t.

The day was built as a triple test and delivered a split result, but the balance favoured the bulls. The July PCE was the disappointment: headline inflation ticked up to 3.7% and core held at 3.3%, confirming the Fed’s preferred gauge is stuck in the mid-3s and handing the hawks from last week’s minutes fresh support. That kept stocks flat and rate-cut hopes in check. But the night belonged to Nvidia. A beat on revenue and earnings alone would have steadied nerves; a guide well above consensus, plus Jensen Huang’s call for 70% growth into fiscal 2028, was a statement — the clearest signal yet that AI demand is not cracking, whatever the stocks did over the past two weeks. With oil holding its lower footing after the week’s de-escalation, the setup into Jackson Hole is better than it was: the AI engine is intact, and the main thing that could spoil it now is a hawkish Warsh leaning on that sticky PCE.

• The regular session was flat — a sticky PCE kept a lid on the tape as the market waited for Nvidia.
• Nvidia changed the tone after hours — a decisive beat and a strong guide lifted the AI complex in extended trade.
• Oil stayed lower — Brent held near $89, a helpful offset to the sticky inflation print.

Equity figures are Wednesday 26 Aug’s close; Nvidia results and after-hours as reported; rates, FX and commodity levels are the latest available and approximate. Single names appear as news, not recommendations. Times GST.

The de-escalation read that pulled oil lower on Tuesday held through Wednesday, with Brent staying near $89, below the $90 mark that had marked the war-premium regime. The framework Iran’s foreign minister sketched — a new shipping corridor, joint mine-clearing and future management of the Strait of Hormuz — remains in view, and the market continues to judge that US economic sanctions, however aggressive, threaten supply less than a military escalation would. That said, both tracks are still running: Washington is maintaining its pressure campaign, the strait is still largely blocked, and nothing has been signed. The significance for the wider picture is real but modest — a crude price back below $90 takes some heat out of the inflation debate at exactly the moment a sticky PCE is keeping the Fed cautious. For the Gulf, the calmer tape is welcome, but the durability of the de-escalation, not a single week’s price action, is what will matter.

Vault Wealth’s house view: the case to ease our defensive stance continues to build — oil below $90 for a second day, a diplomatic framework on the table, and now a reassuring signal on AI earnings. But we said we would act on confirmation, and we hold to that: Jackson Hole and Chair Warsh’s keynote come first, and a hawkish tone against this sticky PCE could still lift yields and unsettle the tape. We keep the energy and gold hedge for now, balanced and liquid, and are prepared to begin trimming it into next week if oil holds lower and the diplomacy firms. Patience is nearly done being rewarded — but not quite yet.