Nvidia relights the rally — now Warsh.

Nvidia’s guidance did what a fortnight of selling could not — it reminded the market that the earnings under the AI trade are real and still compounding, and the relief was immediate, with the megacaps and software names ripping higher to the best session since August 4. The caveat is breadth. That technology was the lone advancing S&P sector tells you this was a snapback in the AI winners, not a green light for the whole market, which still has a sticky-inflation, hawkish-Fed problem to solve. That problem gets its defining moment today. Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole address as Chair lands with core PCE stuck at 3.3% and the labour market softening — the classic late-cycle bind — and a Chair who has signalled he dislikes committing to a path. Markets are not expecting a clear signal so much as a tone: how worried he is about inflation, how much weight he puts on growth, and how independent he stays from political pressure.

• The AI winners led — Nvidia’s surge and a software resurgence drove the best session since early August.
• Breadth stayed thin — technology was the only S&P sector to advance, so the rally was concentrated, not broad.
• The backdrop held steady — a sticky PCE and oil below $90 left rates roughly in place ahead of Warsh.

Equity figures are Thursday 27 Aug’s close; rates, FX and commodity levels are the latest available and approximate. Single names appear as news, not recommendations. Times GST.

For the first week in some time, the Gulf did not set the market’s agenda — and that in itself is the story. Oil held below $90, Brent near $89, with no fresh escalation and the diplomatic framework Iran’s foreign minister outlined still on the table: a new shipping corridor, joint mine-clearing and future management of the Strait of Hormuz. Washington kept up its sanctions pressure, so the two tracks continue to run in parallel, and the strait remains largely blocked. But the absence of a flare-up let crude settle at a lower level, and that quiet has rippled outward — taking some heat out of the inflation debate at exactly the moment the Fed is weighing a sticky PCE. It is a reminder of how central the oil price has become to the whole global picture this month: when the Gulf is calm, yields ease and the equity backdrop improves; when it is not, the reverse. Durability is the open question, and one week does not settle it.

Vault Wealth’s house view: the case to ease our defensive stance is now strong — oil has held below $90 all week, a diplomatic framework is in view, and Nvidia has reassured on the AI earnings that anchor the market. We have said we would act on confirmation, and the final piece is today: Chair Warsh’s keynote. If he avoids a hawkish surprise and oil stays calm into next week, we will begin trimming the energy and gold hedge and adding measured risk back. If he leans hard on the sticky inflation, we hold. We remain balanced and liquid through the weekend, with the bias now tilting, for the first time in a fortnight, back toward re-engagement.