01·The Lead
Held at 3.75–4%, with two dissents.
- The decision: the range stays at 3.75%–4%, set by September’s quarter-point rise.
- The vote: 10–2. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack preferred a quarter-point rise.
- The statement: activity is “expanding at a strong pace”, upgraded from “solid”, and “inflation remains elevated”.
- Chair Warsh on financial conditions: “I’m unwilling and unable to call them tight.”
- Warsh on politics: “Politics played no role in the decision.”
- Fewer meetings: one 2027 meeting becomes a strategy session with no rate vote; from 2028, six policy meetings a year.
- December: bond markets priced about an 85% chance of a quarter-point rise on 9 December, Yahoo Finance reported.
02·Market Reactions
Oracle leads, yields climb.
- Oracle jumped 10.7% after forecasting $225bn of revenue in fiscal 2030 and putting a cap on further fundraising.
- Oil rose after the Wall Street Journal reported the US told Gulf states to prepare for a “short, intense campaign” against Iran, with Trump leaning towards attacking after the midterms.
- Korea: SK Hynix reported record quarterly operating profit of 83 trillion won.
Wednesday 28 October closes; Brent is the January contract.
16.91
VIX
−3.48%
+0.41%
Russell 2000
Wednesday
5.36%
US 30-Yr
+5.6bp
+6.63%
Kospi
Wednesday
Equities
| S&P 500 | +0.28% | |
| Nasdaq Composite | +0.27% | |
| Stoxx 600 | +0.07% | |
| FTSE 100 | +0.07% | |
| DAX | +0.44% | |
| Nikkei 225 | +1.08% |
Commodities
| Brent (Jan) | $111.64 | +2.04% |
| WTI (Dec) | $102.78 | +2.88% |
| Gold | $4,051.60 | −0.56% |
| Silver | $53.46 | −1.54% |
Rates
| US 10-Yr | 5.05% | +5.2bp |
FX
| EUR/USD | 1.1158 | +0.26% |
| US Dollar Index | 102.19 | −0.13% |
Digital Assets
| Bitcoin | $79,756 | −1.60% |
03·Chart of the Day
Faster growth, falling shares.
- Alphabet: revenue and search revenue missed analysts’ estimates, CNBC reported; capital spending of $51.4bn turned free cash flow negative, and 2027 spending will “increase significantly”.
- Microsoft: revenue of $92.3bn beat analysts’ estimate compiled by LSEG, and its Azure cloud unit grew faster than its own forecast.
Big Tech · quarterly results · reported Wed 28 Oct
What Alphabet and Microsoft reported.
Year-on-year growth, quarter to 30 September, %.
Google Cloud revenue+103%
Azure revenue+48%
Alphabet revenue+25%
Microsoft revenue+19%
Source: company results releases, 28 Oct; after-hours moves per StockTitan at 6:02pm New York time.
04·What Else Matters
Israel’s count, Spain’s crash.
Israel
Netanyahu short of a majority
- The count: Netanyahu’s bloc has 53 seats, the opposition 48 and Arab parties 19; 61 is a majority, the Jerusalem Post reported.
- Next: the final tally is expected by Friday; President Herzog’s nominee then has up to 42 days to form a government.
- Eisenkot: Gadi Eisenkot has rejected serving under Netanyahu.
The Jerusalem Post; Al Jazeera · 28 Oct
Spain
Spain’s deadliest high-speed rail crash since 2013
- The crash: at least 68 people died when a Renfe high-speed train hit a stopped Iryo train near Urda, south of Madrid, ABC News reported.
ABC News · 28 Oct
Today
US growth, the ECB, Amazon
- 16:30 GST: US third-quarter GDP, first estimate.
- 17:15 GST: the ECB’s rate decision.
- After the US close: Amazon reports.
ECB; Amazon; TradingView calendar · 26–29 Oct
05·MENA Focus
A draft from Doha, “ideas” to Tehran.
- Abu Dhabi: the ADX lost 1.6% as Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank fell 5% the day after its results, Reuters reported.
- The draft: Qatari mediators gave Iran a draft on Sunday with a seven-day timeline and daily confidence-building steps; Tehran’s reply is due by the weekend, an official told Reuters.
- Iran’s view: a senior Iranian official called it “unacceptable ideas and not an offer”, with no flexibility on the nuclear issue.
- The threat: Iranian security officials told Reuters of plans to attack Gulf undersea cables if US-Israeli strikes resume.
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