01·The Lead
Two blocs, neither at 61.
- Exit polls: Channels 11 and 13 put the two blocs level at 51 seats each, France 24 reported.
- Overnight shift: an updated exit poll had Netanyahu’s bloc on 52 seats, ahead of the opposition, the Times of Israel reported.
- Largest party: Netanyahu’s Likud is projected to finish first.
- Arab parties: projected at a record 18–19 seats, the Times of Israel reported; France 24 put them at 17–18.
- Coalition terms: Netanyahu ruled out a government backed by Arab parties.
- Turnout: 77.7%, the highest in decades, the Times of Israel reported; France 24 put it at 87% of eligible residents.
- Eisenkot: “Netanyahu, don’t you dare use Israel’s security for your political needs.”
- Netanyahu on Iran: Israel has “a unique opportunity” with President Trump “to forever eliminate the existential threat of Iran”, he said.
Exit polls are not official results. France 24 reported that final results could take days.
02·Market Reactions
Chips rise on an Anthropic deal.
- The financing: Bank of America, Blackstone, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley will fund Broadcom AI chips and networking gear to be leased to Anthropic, with deliveries from 2027.
- Boeing said it will miss its original 2026 target for 737 deliveries.
- UPS beat earnings expectations and raised its full-year revenue outlook.
- Oil fell for a second session on Tuesday, TradingKey reported; Brent rose to $110.77 in Asian trading on Wednesday morning.
Tuesday 27 October closes. Brent is the January contract.
17.52
VIX
−4.73%
+1.16%
Russell 2000
small caps
5.31%
US 30-Yr
+0.4bp
−0.73%
Hang Seng
Tuesday
Equities
| S&P 500 | +0.60% | |
| Nasdaq Composite | +1.18% | |
| Stoxx 600 | +0.47% | |
| FTSE 100 | −0.75% | |
| DAX | +0.71% | |
| Nikkei 225 | +1.73% |
Commodities
| Brent (Jan) | $109.41 | −1.20% |
| WTI (Dec) | $99.90 | −1.83% |
| Gold | $4,074.60 | +0.90% |
| Silver | $54.29 | +0.34% |
Rates
| US 10-Yr | 4.99% | +0.7bp |
FX
| EUR/USD | 1.1130 | −0.44% |
| US Dollar Index | 102.32 | +0.35% |
Digital Assets
| Bitcoin | $80,866 | +1.38% |
03·Chart of the Day
AI builders up, Boeing down.
US stocks · one-day moves · close Tue 27 Oct
Boeing’s fall was bigger than any gain.
One-day % change in selected shares and the S&P 500.
CoreWeave+7.9%
UPS+5.8%
Broadcom+4%
Nvidia+0.9%
S&P 500+0.6%
Boeing−10.7%
Source: Yahoo Finance closing prices, 27 Oct; rounded to one decimal.
04·What Else Matters
The Fed, then Big Tech.
Central banks
The Fed decides tonight
- The decision comes at 2pm New York time (10pm GST), with Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference half an hour later.
- Traders priced a 7% chance of a hike from the current 3.75%–4% range.
- Former Fed vice chair Alan Blinder expects a “hawkish pause”, a hold with hikes still possible.
Yahoo Finance · 27 Oct
Earnings
Alphabet and Microsoft report
- Both report after the US close today.
- Analysts expected Alphabet to earn $2.99 a share on $124.6bn of revenue, Schaeffer’s Research reported on 21 Oct.
Schaeffer’s Research via Finviz · 21 Oct; company calendars · 27 Oct
05·MENA Focus
A strike claim at Ras Tanura.
Most Gulf markets rose on Tuesday as diplomacy with Iran gathered pace, Reuters reported.
- The claim: the Houthis said a ballistic missile hit Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery, and caused a fire. Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm, Reuters reported.
- The fire: a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that a fire near the terminal had been contained.
- Interceptions: the Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed two ballistic missiles fired toward Riyadh.
- Qatar: its foreign ministry said Iran must show goodwill by ending threats to Gulf states and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- Markets: Qatar’s index rose 3.4%, its best session since April; Egypt’s rose 3.5%.
Want to discuss what this means for your portfolio?
Book a meeting with a Vault Wealth advisor for personalised guidance.